TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 8:18 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Chevron is estimated to release earnings on July 31, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Chevron’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $5.32 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chevron reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $5.32 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Chevron releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
As of market creation, Chevron is estimated to release earnings on July 31, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Chevron’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $5.32 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chevron reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $5.32 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Chevron releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst consensus because they reflect real-money incentives and live information flow rather than static published estimates. Traders in this market incorporate earnings whispers, recent commodity price moves, and macroeconomic signals faster than sell-side revisions typically update. While Wall Street analysts publish formal EPS and revenue targets, this market prices the binary outcome—beat or miss—based on continuous participant conviction. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is more or less optimistic than the consensus, offering a complementary lens on earnings probability.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into real-time odds for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Participants buy or sell shares representing a beat or miss, with the price of each share reflecting the crowd's aggregate belief in that outcome. As more capital flows toward one side, the price adjusts to equilibrate supply and demand. This mechanism ensures transparent, continuous pricing and allows traders to enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, once Chevron's quarterly earnings announcement and results are public. The outcome is determined by whether the company's reported earnings per share or revenue exceed the consensus estimates that were in effect at the time of the announcement. Resolution is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting and financial news sources. Traders should monitor Chevron's official earnings release and major financial media for the definitive figures that will settle this market.
Oil price volatility, geopolitical developments, and macroeconomic data releases can shift expectations for Chevron's profitability and thus move this market significantly. Analyst estimate revisions, company guidance updates, and industry production reports also influence trader positioning. Broader energy sector trends, refining margins, and upstream project announcements may alter the beat probability. Additionally, any material corporate news—M&A, dividend changes, or capital allocation shifts—can reprrice the market as participants reassess earnings likelihood heading into the announcement date.