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Will CBOE (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?
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Will CBOE (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?

Volume:
$2,924

Will CBOE (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?

 - Polymarket

Will CBOE (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 9:32 AM EST

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Will CBOE (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?

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Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
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$2,924
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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

As of market creation, CBOE is estimated to release earnings on July 31, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for CBOE’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.49 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if CBOE reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.49 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If CBOE releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Polymarket

As of market creation, CBOE is estimated to release earnings on July 31, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for CBOE’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $3.49 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if CBOE reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $3.49 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If CBOE releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the CBOE earnings beat market dashboard displays real-time odds and price history for whether the Chicago Board Options Exchange will exceed consensus earnings expectations in its next quarterly report. The interface tracks current market probability, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume to help you monitor how traders are positioning ahead of the earnings announcement. This live data reflects the collective forecast of market participants betting on whether CBOE will deliver an earnings surprise or miss analyst estimates.

Prediction markets and traditional analyst consensus often diverge because they operate on different incentives. Analysts publish point estimates and ratings based on research models, while traders in this market stake real capital on binary outcomes, creating a direct financial penalty for inaccuracy. Historically, prediction markets have proven competitive with or superior to analyst forecasts on binary events like earnings beats, since traders incorporate both published research and proprietary signals. Comparing the current odds here to consensus earnings estimates can reveal whether the market is pricing in higher or lower confidence in a CBOE beat than Wall Street consensus suggests.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that allows traders to buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the ratio of capital allocated to the "yes" outcome versus the "no" outcome. As traders place orders, the price adjusts dynamically, so the market probability you see is a real-time snapshot of where the crowd believes the odds lie. Higher prices mean traders are more confident in a CBOE earnings beat; lower prices suggest skepticism.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, once CBOE's quarterly earnings results are publicly announced and verified. The outcome is determined by whether the company's reported earnings per share exceed the consensus estimate that was in effect at the time the market was created. Resolution is confirmed once the earnings figure is verifiable from credible public reporting, and traders' positions are settled according to the final result.

Several catalysts can shift odds in this market before resolution. Analyst estimate revisions—either upward or downward—often trigger repricing as traders adjust their expectations. Macroeconomic data affecting options trading volumes, changes in market volatility, and CBOE guidance updates can all influence sentiment. Additionally, earnings surprises from peer companies in the financial services or exchange operator space may prompt traders to reassess CBOE's likelihood of beating. News about regulatory changes or trading activity trends could also move the needle as traders incorporate new information into their forecasts.