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Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
polymarket

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

Jan 29, 2026, 3:47 PM EST - Apr 30, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,587
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
$177
0.84%
Open interest:
$739N/A

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

 - Polymarket

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Apr 30, 2027

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

7%chance
Amount

$

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polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 29¢ buys you 345 shares | Odds: 7% Total Payout: $345 | Net Profit: $245 Multiplier: 3.45x | ROI: 245% High Projected APY: 978% Low liquidity 189 days to resolution
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Outcome
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Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
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polymarket

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

Trade
7%
Yes 29¢No 96¢
25¢
$177
$2,587
0%
0%
N/A
6mo 1w 2d
active
Total markets: 1

Intro

This market tracks whether Canada will experience its largest year-over-year population decline on record, comparing the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of this outcome stands at 50.0%. Resolution will be determined by Statistics Canada's quarterly population estimates release for Q4 2026, using only the initial data published in that report. Watch for StatCan's Q4 2026 population estimates release scheduled by April 30, 2027, which will provide the definitive comparison needed to settle this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the decrease in the population of Canada from the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than that of any year on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, Polymarket shows a 7.0% probability that Canada’s population decline in 2026 will be the largest on record. This contrasts with some recent analyst forecasts, which suggest a more moderate decrease, but opinions vary widely. It’s important to note that prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of traders, while analyst forecasts represent individual assessments. This market provides a different perspective on the likelihood of this demographic event, based on real-money betting rather than expert opinion.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of a record population decline. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and changing sentiment among traders. This creates a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential for this demographic shift.

This market resolves around May 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official population statistics released by Statistics Canada for the year 2026 will be used to determine whether the population decline was the largest on record compared to all prior years. The resolution will be based on the official data released, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of whether the market’s prediction was accurate.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Significant changes in Canadian immigration policies, birth rates, or mortality rates would all be closely watched. Economic conditions, such as a recession or a boom, could also impact migration patterns and population growth. Unexpected geopolitical events or global health crises could also play a role. Any official statements from Statistics Canada regarding population trends or forecasts could also cause the market to react, as traders adjust their positions based on new information.