TOTAL VOLUME:

$146.8b

24H VOL:

$155,383,510

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,782,432,967

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,752,891,948

503,471

Markets across

37,420

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,894

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA

Science and Technology

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

polymarket

kalshi

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Total volume:

$1,653,130

Volume 24h:

$1,562,777

11,510%

Liquidity:

$163,203

0%

Open interest:

$100,356

133%

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

- Polymarket

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? - Polymarket

1W

News

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Negative

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Vol.

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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Amount

$

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 0.1¢ buys you 100,000 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $100,000 | Net Profit: $99,900 Multiplier: 1000.00x | ROI: 99,900% | APY: N/A

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Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

0%

Yes 0.1¢

No 100¢

—

$163,203

$1,452,738

0%

N/A

N/A

0d 0h 0m

disputed

kalshi

Yes

0%

6%

Yes 0¢

No 100¢

—

N/A

$200,392

N/A

N/A

$100,356

2mo 1w 3d

No

Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of any presidential candidate achieving an outright win—over 50% of valid votes—in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, thus avoiding a runoff. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring is 10.0%, aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by data from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). Keep an eye on the official first-round election results, expected to be available by January 1, 2027, to see if any candidate surpasses the 50% threshold needed for an outright victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms agree that a 'Yes' resolution requires a candidate to win outright (over 50% of valid votes) in the first round, and both default to 'No' if results aren't available by a specified date.Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/)

Core resolution logic:

Resolution is based on the official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
A candidate must receive more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round to trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
If no candidate exceeds 50% in the first round, the resolution is 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

Delayed Results: If the official results from the TSE are not available by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 'No'.
Disputed Results: In the event of disputed results, the market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the TSE.

Timing: Resolution will occur after the official results of the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election are published by the TSE, but no later than June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Kalshi

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (50%) to be declared the winner after the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of any presidential candidate achieving an outright win in the first round of the Brazil presidential election. Currently, the aggregated view across these platforms suggests a relatively low probability of this occurring, with a combined volume of $1,653,130 indicating significant interest. Traders on these platforms are expressing their views on the likelihood of a decisive first-round victory, and the Polymarket and Kalshi markets provide a consensus view of this possibility. The 24-hour volume is $937,328.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences, potentially revealing more about true beliefs and expectations. Polling data can be subject to biases and inaccuracies, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be more accurate in their assessments. It’s important to note that prediction markets aren’t always perfectly correlated with polls, but they can provide a valuable complementary signal regarding the likely outcome of the Brazil election.