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406,019

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Will Amazon (AMZN) close above ___ end of July?
polymarket
limitless

Will Amazon (AMZN) close above ___ end of July?

Volume:
$5,906

$240

 - Polymarket

$240 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 31, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 4:33 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$240

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,229
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$190

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$220

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$170

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$382
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$230

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$295
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$180

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$274
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$200

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$210

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$260

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$91
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$250

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$66
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$290

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$280

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$291
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$270

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Weekly

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group tracks whether Amazon (AMZN) stock will close above various price thresholds at the end of July 2026. Polymarket offers 15 binary markets at $10 increments from $170–$290, while Limitless offers a weekly directional comparison (July 24 vs. July 17). The core question is unified: will AMZN reach or exceed a specified price by month-end?

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct resolution scopes and data sources. Polymarket resolves on the final trading day of July against absolute price thresholds using Yahoo Finance. Limitless resolves on July 24 only, comparing to July 17 baseline using Pyth, with no absolute threshold.Hero tip: These are not directly comparable markets. Polymarket's threshold markets ($170–$290) will resolve based on July 31 or July 30 close via Yahoo Finance. Limitless's weekly market only tells you if July 24 > July 17 via Pyth. A trader bullish on AMZN should hedge across both: Polymarket for absolute price conviction, Limitless for near-term momentum. Monitor Pyth vs. Yahoo price divergence on July 24 as a leading indicator of potential platform disagreement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on the final trading day of July 2026 (July 31 or July 30 if holiday) using Yahoo Finance official closing price. Covers 15 binary threshold markets ($170–$290 in $10 increments). Falls back to last valid on-exchange trade if no official close. Applies split-adjusted prices. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of July 2026 is higher than the listed price.'
  • Limitless: Resolves on July 24, 2026 only, comparing Pyth AMZN/USD price on July 24 to July 17 baseline ($247.32024). No absolute threshold; purely directional (Up if July 24 > July 17, Down otherwise). Falls back to official primary exchange price if Pyth unavailable. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the price for Amazon (Pyth AMZN/USD) on July 24, 2026 is strictly higher than the price for Amazon (Pyth AMZN/USD) on July 17, 2026.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of July 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Up" if the price for Amazon (Pyth AMZN/USD) on July 24, 2026 is strictly higher than the price for Amazon (Pyth AMZN/USD) on July 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The price for Amazon (Pyth AMZN/USD) captured on July 17, 2026 was $247.32024. Resolution source: Pyth AMZN/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For example, a weekly Friday market would ordinarily compare that Friday's price with the previous Friday's price, unless that previous Friday was a market holiday. In that case, it would compare against Thursday's price, or the next most recent trading day. If Amazon (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session on July 24, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down". For a standard full trading session, the price for that trading day refers to the Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price published during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective price for that day. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which AMZN is listed will be used to determine the price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting AMZN during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Frequently asked questions

The Amazon July price target market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Limitless on whether AMZN will close above a specific price level by end of July. This dashboard consolidates real-time odds and volume from both venues, giving you a cross-platform view of consensus sentiment around Amazon's stock performance. Traders use these markets to hedge exposure, speculate on near-term moves, or benchmark their own forecasts against the crowd. The combined activity reflects how prediction market participants collectively assess Amazon's likelihood of reaching key price targets within the specified timeframe.

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional Wall Street analyst targets because they reflect real-money incentives and continuous price discovery rather than periodic research updates. On this market, traders are directly rewarded for accuracy, which can make odds more responsive to breaking news and sentiment shifts than consensus estimates. Analyst forecasts tend to be stickier and revised less frequently, while prediction markets update in real time as new information emerges. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk or where consensus may be lagging market-moving developments.

Polymarket and Limitless may price this market differently due to variations in liquidity, user base composition, and fee structures. Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with distinct risk appetites and time horizons, leading to temporary arbitrage opportunities. Differences in order-book depth and trading volume can also cause one venue to move faster than the other in response to news. Over time, large traders often exploit these spreads, but gaps may persist if transaction costs or platform friction outweigh the profit opportunity.

Amazon earnings reports, guidance revisions, and macroeconomic data—especially interest rate decisions and tech sector momentum—are primary catalysts for this market. Competitive pressures in cloud computing, advertising, and e-commerce can shift trader sentiment on Amazon's near-term trajectory. Broader market volatility, changes in Fed policy, and sector rotation between growth and value stocks also influence price action. Individual company news, such as executive changes or strategic announcements, may trigger sharp repricing as traders reassess the probability of hitting the target by month-end.