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406,019

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Will Adobe Q2 total ARR be above __?
polymarket

Will Adobe Q2 total ARR be above __?

Volume:
$2,226

$26.0B

 - Polymarket

$26.0B - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$26.0B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,505
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$26.5B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$27.0B

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
92¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

$28.0B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$326
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

$27.5B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$166
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Adobe's total annualized recurring revenue will exceed $27.5 billion in its second fiscal quarter of 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome carries a probability of 94.0%. Resolution will be determined by Adobe's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. Watch for Adobe's Q2 2026 earnings announcement expected around June 11, 2026, which will provide the official ARR figure needed to settle this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adobe's total ARR (Adobe Annualized Recurring Revenue) for the second fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Adobe's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price data for the Will Adobe Q2 total ARR be above __? market on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that Adobe's Q2 annualized recurring revenue will exceed the specified threshold, along with 24-hour trading volume and cumulative group volume of $2,226. Users can view how odds have shifted over time, monitor recent trades, and assess market sentiment as the resolution date approaches on Jun 11, 2026.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Adobe's Q2 ARR outcome. Analyst forecasts typically derive from equity research reports and earnings models published by investment banks and research firms. The market odds may diverge from analyst consensus if traders incorporate different assumptions about Adobe's subscription growth, customer retention, or pricing changes. Comparing the two reveals whether the prediction market is pricing in more optimism or caution than the professional analyst community.

The market resolves on Jun 11, 2026, following Adobe's official Q2 earnings announcement and financial disclosures. Resolution hinges on Adobe's reported total annualized recurring revenue for the quarter, which the company publishes in its earnings release and 10-Q filing. The outcome is binary: if Adobe's Q2 ARR meets or exceeds the specified threshold, the affirmative outcome wins; otherwise, the negative outcome prevails. Official company filings serve as the authoritative source for determining the result.

Key catalysts include Adobe's quarterly earnings call, guidance updates, and any material announcements about subscription pricing, product launches, or customer wins. Macroeconomic shifts affecting enterprise software spending, competitive pressures from rivals, and changes in customer churn rates could all influence ARR trajectory. Industry reports on SaaS adoption trends and Adobe's own forward-looking statements may also shift trader expectations. Additionally, any strategic acquisitions, product discontinuations, or shifts in Adobe's subscription mix could impact the final ARR figure traders are betting on.