TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 9, 9:00 AM EST
Polymarket
As of market creation, Academy Sports is estimated to release earnings on June 9, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Academy Sports’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.92 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Academy Sports reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.92 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Academy Sports releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
On Polymarket, the ASO earnings beat event is priced as a binary contract: traders buy or sell shares representing "yes" (ASO beats) or "no" (ASO misses or meets but does not beat). On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contract price reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As new earnings guidance, macroeconomic data, or company announcements emerge, traders adjust positions, moving the price up or down. Polymarket's order-book model allows continuous price discovery, with the final settlement price determined only at the official resolution date when actual earnings are reported.
The market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 9, 2026. Resolution is triggered when Academy Sports reports its quarterly earnings results and consensus expectations are finalized. The outcome hinges on whether reported earnings per share (or net income, depending on the exact contract terms) exceed the pre-announcement consensus estimate. Official earnings announcements, SEC filings, and third-party data providers confirm the final figures. Once the actual result is published and verified, the market settles in favor of the winning outcome.
Key catalysts include ASO's pre-earnings guidance updates, same-store sales trends, inventory reports, and macroeconomic data affecting retail consumer spending. Sector-wide events—supply chain disruptions, competitor earnings surprises, or shifts in sporting goods demand—can reshape trader expectations. Management commentary on margins, promotional activity, and holiday season performance will influence odds. Broader market volatility, credit conditions, and analyst downgrades or upgrades may also shift the probability. Each of these signals prompts traders to reassess the likelihood of an earnings beat, driving price movement on Polymarket ahead of the Jun 9, 2026 resolution.