TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Elections
WI-07 Republican nominee?
kalshi

WI-07 Republican nominee?

Volume:
$33,394

Michael Alfonso

 - Kalshi

Michael Alfonso - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 12:48 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Michael Alfonso

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,063
N/A
N/A
$11,537
1mo 4d
Yes
kalshi

Kevin Hermening

0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,348
N/A
N/A
$7,711
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

Jessi Ebben

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,878
N/A
N/A
$3,122
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

Cheryl Ann Runkel

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,094
N/A
N/A
$1,094
1mo 4d
No
kalshi

Niina Threlfall-Baum

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,011
N/A
N/A
$1,010
1mo 4d
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks which candidate will secure the Republican Party nomination for the 2026 U.S. House race in Wisconsin's 7th district. On Kalshi, Michael Alfonso commands 94.0% probability of winning the nomination, while Niina Threlfall-Baum holds 5.0%. The market resolves based on the official Republican Party nomination outcome for the WI-07 House seat. Watch the Wisconsin Republican primary process and candidate announcements leading up to the 2026 election cycle for signals about nomination momentum.

Kalshi

If Michael Alfonso wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jessi Ebben wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kevin Hermening wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Niina Threlfall-Baum wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cheryl Ann Runkel wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign momentum, and insider knowledge that polls may lag. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets reflect ongoing bets where participants have financial incentive to price outcomes accurately. For the WI-07 Republican race, comparing market odds to recent polling can reveal whether traders expect a shift in voter sentiment or whether polling already reflects market consensus. Markets typically adjust faster than polls when new developments occur, making them a complementary signal for tracking nomination dynamics.

The WI-07 Republican nominee market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official Republican nominee selected through Wisconsin's nomination process for the 7th congressional district. This typically occurs at the state party convention or through the primary election process, depending on party rules and timing. Once the nominee is officially confirmed, the market settles based on which candidate achieved that status. Traders should monitor Wisconsin Republican Party announcements and official nomination procedures to anticipate resolution timing and ensure positions align with their expectations.

Key events that could shift WI-07 Republican nominee odds include candidate endorsements from state or national Republican figures, campaign funding announcements, debate performances, and local media coverage. Primary election results in neighboring districts or statewide races may signal voter sentiment. Candidate withdrawals or new entrants would dramatically reshape probabilities. Polling releases specific to WI-07 often trigger market repricing. Scandals, gaffes, or major policy announcements by frontrunners can swing odds rapidly. Internal party dynamics, convention rule changes, and grassroots momentum shifts also influence trader expectations. Monitor Wisconsin political news and national Republican developments closely for catalysts.