TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 12, 12:48 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which candidate will secure the Republican Party nomination for the 2026 U.S. House race in Wisconsin's 7th district. On Kalshi, Michael Alfonso commands 94.0% probability of winning the nomination, while Niina Threlfall-Baum holds 5.0%. The market resolves based on the official Republican Party nomination outcome for the WI-07 House seat. Watch the Wisconsin Republican primary process and candidate announcements leading up to the 2026 election cycle for signals about nomination momentum.
If Michael Alfonso wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jessi Ebben wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kevin Hermening wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Niina Threlfall-Baum wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cheryl Ann Runkel wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 WI-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
The WI-07 Republican nominee market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official Republican nominee selected through Wisconsin's nomination process for the 7th congressional district. This typically occurs at the state party convention or through the primary election process, depending on party rules and timing. Once the nominee is officially confirmed, the market settles based on which candidate achieved that status. Traders should monitor Wisconsin Republican Party announcements and official nomination procedures to anticipate resolution timing and ensure positions align with their expectations.
Key events that could shift WI-07 Republican nominee odds include candidate endorsements from state or national Republican figures, campaign funding announcements, debate performances, and local media coverage. Primary election results in neighboring districts or statewide races may signal voter sentiment. Candidate withdrawals or new entrants would dramatically reshape probabilities. Polling releases specific to WI-07 often trigger market repricing. Scandals, gaffes, or major policy announcements by frontrunners can swing odds rapidly. Internal party dynamics, convention rule changes, and grassroots momentum shifts also influence trader expectations. Monitor Wisconsin political news and national Republican developments closely for catalysts.