TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 9:02 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
Serbia will hold parliamentary elections in 2026. This market tracks whether a student-led electoral list or an SNS-led (Serbian Progressive Party) electoral list will win the most seats. The winning list is the one that secures the largest number of parliamentary seats and either forms the government or receives the highest vote share if a tie occurs.
Kalshi
The winner of the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is determined by which list—Student list or SNS-led list—obtains the most seats in parliament. Only formally registered electoral lists count; the Student list must be designated by university students organizing nationwide blockades and cannot contain SNS, while the SNS-led list must formally contain the Serbian Progressive Party. In case of a tie in seat count, the list that enters government resolves to Yes; if both or neither enter government, the list with the higher vote share resolves to Yes. Only coalitions formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline qualify—post-election governing arrangements do not count. Overhang, leveling, and appointed seats count only if explicitly specified. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant Serbian electoral authority. Contested results are resolved according to the final certified outcome from the appropriate electoral authority or highest court. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original election date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open for a re-run election or until expiration.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price. Conversely, if they believe an outcome is unlikely, they will sell, lowering the price.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which party or coalition is officially declared the winner of the Serbian parliamentary election by the relevant electoral authorities. The final result will be determined by the official vote count and any subsequent legal challenges or recounts, as reported by reputable news sources. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the outcome is officially confirmed.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the political landscape, such as significant endorsements, unexpected scandals involving key candidates, or shifts in coalition negotiations, could all impact trading activity. Economic news, such as changes in unemployment rates or inflation, could also influence perceptions of the incumbent government's performance. Furthermore, any major geopolitical events or external factors that affect Serbia's political stability could lead to shifts in the odds. Unexpected polling data releases might also cause adjustments, though this market isn’t solely driven by polls.
