TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Abelardo de la Espriella
- Kalshi
Abelardo de la Espriella - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 24, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 24, 5:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Abelardo de la Espriella will win Colombia's next presidential election, scheduled for 2026 or earlier. On Kalshi, de la Espriella commands 89.0% probability, with Iván Cepeda Castro at 12.0%. The market resolves based on the official winner of the Colombian presidential election as determined by relevant electoral authorities. Watch for the completion of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, which will trigger final resolution of this market.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant Colombian electoral authority regarding the winner of the next presidential election scheduled for 2026 at the latest. The winning candidate is determined by official electoral authority declaration and subsequent swearing-in, or if the inauguration date passes without a different person taking office. If a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated after the election but before taking office, the market still resolves for that candidate. If the election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate a broader range of information—including campaign momentum, fundraising, endorsements, and real-time political developments. While polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect the collective judgment of participants with financial incentive to forecast accurately. For the Colombian presidential race, market odds may lead or lag polling depending on whether traders anticipate shifts in voter behavior. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in scenarios that surveys have not yet captured, offering insight into expected election dynamics.
The market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 25, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the official results of the Colombian presidential election. The outcome is binary: either the specified candidate wins the election or does not. Traders should monitor official electoral authority announcements and any legal challenges or recounts that may affect the final determination. The market will settle once the winner is officially confirmed and any dispute resolution processes are complete. Traders holding positions should track Colombian electoral timelines and institutional procedures leading up to and following election day.
Key catalysts include major polling releases, campaign rallies and endorsements, economic announcements affecting voter sentiment, and media coverage of candidate performance. Scandals, policy announcements, or shifts in coalition-building among political parties can rapidly reshape odds. International developments or statements from regional leaders may also influence trader expectations. Debate performances and turnout indicators closer to election day typically drive significant price movement. Unexpected withdrawals or candidate health issues could reshape the race entirely. Traders should monitor Colombian news outlets, electoral commission updates, and social media sentiment for early signals of shifting momentum that may not yet be reflected in traditional polls.
