TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Civil Contract
- Kalshi
Civil Contract - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 16, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 16, 11:50 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the I Have Honor Alliance will win Armenia's next parliamentary election. On Kalshi, the I Have Honor Alliance winning is priced at 93.3%, while an alternative outcome stands at 4.6%. The market will resolve based on the official results of the Armenian parliamentary election, which must be held by June 2026 at the latest. Watch for the scheduled election date announcement and campaign developments leading up to the vote.
Kalshi
The winner is determined by official certification from the relevant Armenian electoral authority and is defined as the party or formal pre-election coalition winning the most seats in parliament, regardless of whether they form the government. In case of a tie for most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that does not resolve the tie, the party with the higher vote share wins. If the election is postponed, the market remains open until the new date for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign momentum, and historical accuracy of pollsters. While polls measure stated voter preference at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reward participants who correctly forecast the actual result, creating stronger incentives for accuracy. Armenian parliamentary elections involve complex coalition dynamics and voter turnout patterns that polls may not fully capture. Comparing market odds to polling data can reveal where traders see asymmetric risk or where public surveys may be lagging behind ground-level political developments.
The market is scheduled to resolve on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official results of the next Armenian parliamentary election as announced by the relevant electoral authorities. The outcome will reflect which party or coalition wins the most seats or forms the governing majority, depending on the specific contract terms. Traders should monitor official election announcements and any post-election developments that may affect final seat allocation or coalition formation. The exact resolution criteria are detailed in the market's terms and conditions on Kalshi.
Key catalysts include campaign announcements from major Armenian parties, polling releases showing shifts in voter preference, and geopolitical developments affecting regional stability. Constitutional or electoral law changes could alter the competitive landscape. International statements or sanctions may influence voter sentiment. Leadership changes, defections, or coalition announcements typically trigger sharp price moves. Turnout expectations and diaspora voting patterns also matter for Armenian elections. Media coverage of campaign events, debates, and controversies can shift trader sentiment rapidly. As the election date approaches, odds typically narrow as uncertainty resolves and final voter intentions become clearer.
