TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
James Gallagher
- Kalshi
James Gallagher - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 14, 5:21 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether James Gallagher will win the California 1st district special election, including any potential runoff rounds. On Kalshi, the probability of a Gallagher victory stands at 95.7%. The market resolves based on official election results as determined by the California Secretary of State. Watch for the special election scheduled around March 1, 2026, which will determine the final outcome.
Kalshi
The CA-01 special election winner is determined by official certification or declaration from the relevant electoral authority. A candidate wins by prevailing according to the applicable electoral system (including any runoffs) and either being inaugurated, sworn in, taking office, or having the scheduled inauguration date pass without a different candidate taking office. Contested results resolve based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. When competing claims exist, the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until a rescheduled election occurs or two years from the original election date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled by a court or authority after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open until the re-run election or expiration.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling due to different incentive structures. Markets reward accurate forecasts with real money, while polls measure stated preferences at a single moment. The CA-01 special election market reflects traders' aggregated bets on candidate viability, campaign momentum, and turnout dynamics. Comparing market odds to recent polls and analyst ratings can reveal where traders are pricing in factors polls may lag on, such as late-breaking developments or fundraising strength.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official results of the CA-01 special election, including any runoff if required by California law. The winning candidate's contract will be settled at 100 cents, while all other candidates' contracts settle at zero. Kalshi uses authoritative government sources and news verification to confirm the final outcome before paying out winning positions.
Key catalysts include candidate endorsements, debate performances, campaign spending reports, and voter registration data. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or health issues could reshape the race overnight. Local economic news, state or federal policy announcements, and turnout-driving events in the district may shift trader sentiment. Media coverage of frontrunner momentum or challenger surges often triggers sharp price moves. Polling releases closer to election day typically drive significant volume and repricing as the market incorporates fresh data on voter preferences.
