TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Left Party
- Kalshi
Left Party - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 19, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 19, 11:02 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event determines which political party will secure the fourth-highest number of seats in Sweden's Riksdag following the 2026 general election. The outcome depends solely on the official seat allocation certified by the Swedish election authority, not preliminary vote counts or regional results.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the final, certified distribution of seats in the Swedish Riksdag from the 2026 general election. The party awarded the 4th-highest number of seats in Valmyndigheten's mandatfördelning resolves YES for that specific party market, while all others resolve NO. Seat ranking is determined strictly by the certified seat allocation, not by national vote share. If a party receives no seats, it cannot place 4th. Should an unlisted party finish 4th, all markets resolve NO. In the event of a tie for 4th place among multiple parties, the payout is divided equally among tied parties, calculated as $1 divided by the number of tied entities, rounded down.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, the odds for this market reflect trader expectations about which party will finish fourth in Sweden’s Riksdag. These odds can diverge from traditional polling averages for several reasons, including trader access to non-public information, reactions to recent events, or differences in how markets weight uncertainty. For example, if polls show a tight race but traders see underlying weaknesses in a leading party, the market may assign a higher probability to an underdog. Monitoring both polling data and market prices helps identify potential mispricings or early signals of shifting voter sentiment before the election.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are officially verified against credible public reporting. The final tally of seats won by each party in Sweden's Riksdag will determine the winner, based on the official and universally accepted election data. No internal platform mechanisms or external judgments influence this — the market settles according to real-world results once they are publicly and authoritatively documented.
Several signals or events could shift probabilities in this market before Sep 21, 2026. Major developments such as party leadership changes, scandals, economic announcements, or shifts in coalition negotiations can all influence trader sentiment. Debates, policy releases, and public opinion surges captured in real-time polls may also cause rapid adjustments. International factors affecting Swedish politics — like EU decisions or migration policy debates — could sway investor views. Additionally, betting patterns and large trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum, especially in a market with relatively low volume like this one.
