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400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Who will Trump speak to in July?
polymarket
kalshi

Who will Trump speak to in July?

Volume:
$1,492,647

Andy Burnham

 - Polymarket

Andy Burnham - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Jul 21, 12:45 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Andy Burnham

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
4.9¢
N/A
$37,596
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,136
N/A
N/A
$3,029
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jensen Huang

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16,679
N/A
N/A
$11,633
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Vladimir Putin

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Vladimir Putin

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,343
N/A
N/A
$4,704
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Keir Starmer

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.5¢
N/A
$15,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Keir Starmer

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,922
N/A
N/A
$2,202
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mohammed bin Salman

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Mohammed bin Salman

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,503
N/A
N/A
$3,333
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ahmed al-Sharaa

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Friedrich Merz

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

John Thune

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,176
N/A
N/A
$4,410
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Benjamin Netanyahu

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,970
N/A
N/A
$3,876
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mark Rutte

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,915
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Mark Carney

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,828
N/A
N/A
$2,896
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Mark Carney

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,187
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,087
N/A
N/A
$1,700
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Emmanuel Macron

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,132,812
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ron DeSantis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,967
N/A
N/A
$26,256
Settled
No
polymarket

Yoon Suk Yeol

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,403
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Elon Musk

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,024
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Reza Pahlavi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,123
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Reza Pahlavi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,130
N/A
N/A
$2,115
Settled
No
polymarket

Xi Jinping

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,997
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 45

Intro

This market tracks whether Donald Trump will speak to Emmanuel Macron in July 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for a "Yes" outcome stands at 40.0% across Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution based on credible media reporting or official statements. Watch for any confirmed verbal interaction between Trump and Macron before the market's July 31, 2026 deadline to determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Timeframe divergence (Kalshi through August 1 vs Polymarket July 1-31 only) combined with contact list fragmentation (22 vs 23 individuals with partial overlap) and source confirmation deadline risk (Polymarket requires media consensus by August 3, 11:59 PM ET).Hero tip: Treat Kalshi and Polymarket markets as separate instruments. Kalshi is more favorable for late-July interactions and those confirmed after August 1. Polymarket requires faster media confirmation and stricter July-only timing. Cross-reference contact lists: Polymarket adds Elon Musk, Emmanuel Macron, Ursula von der Leyen, Masoud Pezeshkian, Miguel Díaz-Canel, Nicolás Maduro, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Kim Jong Un, Friedrich Merz, Pope Leo XIV, Yoon Suk Yeol, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Mark Rutte; Kalshi includes Jensen Huang, Hakeem Jeffries, John Thune, Sanae Takaichi, Zohran Mamdani, and Lai Ching-te. Arbitrage opportunities exist if a contact appears on only one platform.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary YES/NO for each of 22 named individuals. Resolves YES if Trump meets or speaks (phone/video included) with that person before August 1, 2026. No explicit reporting deadline or source hierarchy. Scope: 22 contacts total.
  • Polymarket: Binary YES/NO for each of 23 named individuals. Resolves YES only if verbal interaction occurs July 1-31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution source: credible media reporting first; statements from either party considered conclusive only if uncontradicted by August 3, 11:59 PM ET (third calendar day post-timeframe). If no consensus by August 3, resolves NO regardless of later confirmation. Scope: 23 contacts total.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Kalshi

A meeting between Donald Trump and any specified individual resolves to Yes if direct real-time interaction occurs before August 1, 2026. Qualifying interactions include in-person encounters, video conferences, phone calls, or any combination thereof where both parties are present and communicating directly. Formal bilateral meetings, summits, conferences, informal encounters at multilateral events documented by Source Agencies, working meals, pull-aside conversations, and visits to non-official locations all qualify. Interactions that do not qualify include being present at the same event without direct interaction, written correspondence, communication through intermediaries, pre-recorded messages, cancelled meetings, and near-misses where parties were scheduled to meet but did not.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like this one differ fundamentally from polls: they aggregate financial incentives rather than stated preferences, making traders bear real economic cost for inaccuracy. While traditional polling captures snapshot opinion, this market reflects dynamic probability estimates updated continuously as new information emerges about Trump's July calendar and diplomatic plans. Traders adjust positions based on news flow, leaked schedules, and geopolitical developments, often moving faster than survey-based forecasts. This makes prediction markets particularly useful for near-term event forecasting where specificity and timeliness matter.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in user demographics, liquidity depth, and contract design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket's broader retail participation can amplify sentiment-driven moves, while Kalshi's institutional focus and regulatory framework may encourage more conservative pricing. Differences in how each platform frames the underlying question—whether emphasizing bilateral meetings, public remarks, or specific counterparties—also influence odds. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms typically narrow over time as sophisticated traders exploit spreads.

Announced diplomatic schedules, summit confirmations, and official calendar releases will drive immediate repricing. Media reports of planned meetings, cancellations, or postponements shift odds sharply. Geopolitical developments—sanctions, trade negotiations, or international incidents—can alter the likelihood of specific engagements occurring. Public statements from Trump or foreign leaders about July meetings also trigger volatility. Closer to month-end, actual occurrence or non-occurrence of announced events will compress remaining uncertainty and finalize trader positions.