TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 29, 8:36 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will publicly praise Mark Rutte during the month of August 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives a 40.0% probability to this outcome. The market resolves based on public statements made by Donald Trump, as determined by the resolution source. Traders should particularly watch for any statements Trump makes leading up to August 31, 2026, as this date marks the end of the resolution window and the final opportunity for a qualifying praise to be made.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises the listed individual between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the listed individual personally or professionally. This can include direct praise (e.g., “He/She is smart,” “He’s/She's a great leader”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“impressive,” “strong,” “brilliant,” “doing a great job”) made in reference to the listed individual. Any statement that clearly expresses approval, admiration, or endorsement of the listed individual personally qualifies for this market regardless of context (e.g., "He/She is very smart, but he/she doesn’t seem to know that this policy will harm more of his/her constituents." would qualify). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “We had a good meeting”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Compared to public polling averages, this market often reflects sharper, more immediate trader expectations about who Trump might praise. While polls sample public opinion broadly, this market incorporates insider speculation, media narratives, and real-time political maneuvering. Traders may price in factors polls miss, leading to divergence from traditional survey results.
This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Any individual publicly praised by Trump in August will determine the result, regardless of timing within the month. The process relies on widely reported statements or actions from Trump himself.