TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Mike Lindell
- Kalshi
Mike Lindell - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 7, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 15, 10:08 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Donald Trump will publicly endorse Marsha Blackburn in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 64.0%. Resolution is determined by whether Trump makes a public endorsement of Blackburn before August 6, 2026, as specified by Kalshi's resolution criteria. Watch for Trump's campaign activity and public statements leading up to the August 6, 2026 deadline, as any formal endorsement announcement before that date will trigger market resolution.
Kalshi
An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the candidate's election that is public (not private communications) and specifically references the race or is clearly in context of the race. The endorsement must come directly from Trump or through his official channels. Positive comments without explicit support, policy endorsements without nominee endorsement, or conditional endorsements do not qualify. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts; likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement, though quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Sarcastic statements or those immediately clarified as jokes do not qualify. Each candidate has a specific deadline before their respective primary election.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because markets incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking expectations. While polls measure current voter sentiment at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect traders' beliefs about actual endorsement outcomes months ahead. Markets may price in endorsement signals, behind-the-scenes negotiations, and candidate momentum that polls have not yet captured. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is more bullish or bearish on specific candidates than public opinion surveys suggest, offering a complementary lens on the endorsement race.
The market is scheduled to resolve by Sep 15, 2026, capturing Trump endorsement decisions throughout the 2026 primary season. Resolution is determined by whether and when Trump publicly endorses specific candidates in primary races, with outcomes tied to verifiable endorsement statements or actions. The market structure allows for multiple outcomes if Trump endorses different candidates across different races or states. Traders should monitor official announcements, campaign events, and Trump's social media and public appearances for endorsement signals that will ultimately settle the market.
Key catalysts include Trump's public statements favoring or opposing specific candidates, campaign rallies where he may announce endorsements, and shifts in candidate viability or polling strength. Developments in Trump's legal situation, his own political positioning, and relationships with potential endorsees could reshape his endorsement strategy. Media reports of behind-the-scenes negotiations or candidate outreach to Trump may move odds preemptively. Primary election results, candidate withdrawals, and Trump's own policy priorities heading into 2026 will all influence which candidates he chooses to back and the timing of those endorsements.
