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Who will Trump announce as next Director of National Intelligence?
polymarket

Who will Trump announce as next Director of National Intelligence?

Volume:
$213,436

No announcement by December 31

 - Polymarket

No announcement by December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Dec 30, 7:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No announcement by December 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Aaron Lukas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,958
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Tom Cotton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,994
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Person A

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,745
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Person B

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,937
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Devin Nunes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,705
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Richard Grenell

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Chris Stewart

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,766
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Michael Ellis

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,482
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Sebastian Gorka

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,095
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Mike Flynn

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,021
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Stephen Miller

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,934
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Robert O’Brien

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,831
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

John Eisenberg

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,729
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Derek Harvey

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,267
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Amaryllis Fox Kennedy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,050
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

John Ratcliffe

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,015
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Stacey Dixon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,974
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Mike Waltz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Kash Patel

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,448
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Person D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Person Q

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Person S

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Person T

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
polymarket

Person V

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 1d
No
Total markets: 25 of 51

Intro

This market tracks which individual Donald Trump will announce as his selection for Director of National Intelligence. On Polymarket, John Ratcliffe leads at 38.5%, with Michael Ellis close behind at 37.7%. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration, or formal Senate nominations, according to Polymarket's resolution criteria. Watch for Trump's official announcement by the December 31, 2026 deadline, as any public statement explicitly naming his intended nominee will trigger market resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be the next Director of National Intelligence. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Director of National Intelligence will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Director of National Intelligence. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Director of National Intelligence will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Director of National Intelligence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No announcement by December 31”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this event, showing which candidates the market believes Trump is most likely to announce as Director of National Intelligence. You can monitor the leading outcome's current probability, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $129,360 across all candidate options. The dashboard displays total group volume of $213,084, helping you gauge market liquidity and consensus strength as the announcement approaches.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling because traders have direct financial incentive to forecast accurately, whereas polls measure stated preferences at a single moment. Markets incorporate real-time information, insider signals, and betting patterns that polls may miss. For this Director of National Intelligence announcement, market prices reflect aggregated trader conviction about Trump's actual choice, while polls—if available—would capture public opinion or expert speculation. Markets typically adjust faster as new developments emerge.

The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether Trump makes an official public announcement naming a Director of National Intelligence and the identity of the person announced. The outcome is verified against credible news sources and official statements. Once the announcement occurs and is confirmed, the corresponding candidate contract settles to 100 percent and all other candidate contracts settle to zero, distributing winnings to holders of the correct outcome.

Market odds will shift based on Trump's public statements, media reports about potential candidates, Senate confirmation hearing schedules, and any candidate withdrawals or endorsements. Geopolitical events, intelligence briefings, or personnel changes within the intelligence community could influence Trump's decision and trader expectations. Leaks or insider reports about frontrunners will likely trigger sharp price movements. As the announcement date approaches, reduced uncertainty typically narrows the odds, while surprise developments or candidate controversies can cause rapid repricing across all outcomes.