TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 3, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Whether a public figure will publicly announce their candidacy for elected office in the 2026 election before November 3, 2026.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes for each individual if they publicly announce they will run for an elected public office in the 2026 election after market issuance and before November 3, 2026, including running for a political party's nomination. A formal public announcement from the candidate or their official campaign is required; merely filing Federal Election Commission paperwork without public announcement is insufficient. Exploratory committees or statements of interest do not qualify without a formal campaign announcement. The announcement must specify the 2026 election and the particular office being sought. Running for a party's nomination to contest an office counts as running for that office. Third-party speculation or reports without official campaign confirmation do not satisfy resolution criteria.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a candidate will run. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the cost to take the 'yes' side of the bet – that is, the cost to believe the candidate *will* run. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements and a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on whether an individual has officially announced their candidacy for a federal public office (President, Vice President, Senator, or Representative) by that date. Official announcements are considered to be formal declarations of candidacy filed with the Federal Election Commission or equivalent state/local election authorities. The resolution will be based on publicly available information and verified against credible public sources.
Numerous signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding potential candidates – even hints of consideration – would likely cause price shifts. Changes in the political landscape, such as shifts in party dynamics or key endorsements, could also influence trading activity. Fundraising reports, media coverage, and even unexpected events impacting current officeholders could all serve as catalysts. Furthermore, any developments affecting the perceived electability of potential candidates or the overall political climate will likely be reflected in the odds within this market.
