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Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?
polymarket

Who will place first in the CA-12 primary?

Volume:
$1,630

Lateefah Simon

 - Polymarket

Lateefah Simon - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 1, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Lateefah Simon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$1,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jamie Joyce

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
2.3¢
N/A
$392
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

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N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks which candidate will receive the most votes in California's 12th congressional district primary election. On Polymarket, Lateefah Simon holds a leading probability of 98.0%, while Jamie Joyce stands at 34.8%. The market will resolve based on official results from the California Secretary of State and other consensus sources. Watch for the primary election scheduled for June 2, 2026, which will determine the final outcome.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no primary is held by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jun 2, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official primary election results for California's 12th congressional district. The outcome is decided by which candidate receives the most votes on election day. Once results are certified and confirmed, the market settles automatically, and traders holding shares in the winning candidate receive their payout. Until that date, odds may shift based on campaign events, endorsements, and emerging political developments in the district.

Key catalysts include candidate endorsements from prominent state or national figures, major fundraising announcements, debate performances, and local media coverage. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or entry could reshape the race dynamics. Shifts in voter registration or turnout expectations in the district may also influence odds. National political developments affecting the party or district demographics could trigger repricing. Late-stage polling releases, campaign spending surges, and grassroots momentum shifts often drive significant market movement in the final weeks before the Jun 2, 2026 primary election.