TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Jared Kushner will participate in an in-person diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives acting on behalf of the United States before the end of June 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of such a meeting occurring stands at 60.0%. Resolution will be determined by official statements from the relevant governments or consensus reporting from credible media outlets. Watch for any public announcements or diplomatic initiatives between U.S. and Iranian officials as the June 30, 2026 deadline approaches.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined based on whether a qualifying diplomatic meeting between the specified parties and Iran has taken place. Resolution depends on documented evidence of an official or high-level meeting occurring before the deadline. Traders should monitor official government announcements, diplomatic calendars, and credible news sources to assess the likelihood of resolution before the end date.
Key catalysts include official statements from U.S. or Iranian government officials confirming or denying meeting plans, changes in U.S. foreign policy or sanctions posture, regional security developments affecting diplomatic appetite, and scheduled international forums where such meetings might occur. Media reports of back-channel negotiations, shifts in Iran's political leadership, or major geopolitical incidents could rapidly shift trader expectations. Traders should track diplomatic calendars, official press releases, and credible reporting on U.S.-Iran relations to anticipate price movements.