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$113,466,932

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OPEN INTEREST:

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402,751

Markets across

30,217

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2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Politics
Who will meet with Iran by June 30?
polymarket

Who will meet with Iran by June 30?

Volume:
$198,364

J.D. Vance

 - Polymarket

J.D. Vance - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

J.D. Vance

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$93,303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Steve Witkoff

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$30,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jared Kushner

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25,351
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Donald Trump

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Marco Rubio

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,564
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Jared Kushner will participate in an in-person diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives acting on behalf of the United States before the end of June 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of such a meeting occurring stands at 60.0%. Resolution will be determined by official statements from the relevant governments or consensus reporting from credible media outlets. Watch for any public announcements or diplomatic initiatives between U.S. and Iranian officials as the June 30, 2026 deadline approaches.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds differ from traditional polling because they reflect financial incentives rather than survey responses. While polls measure stated public opinion on Iran policy, prediction markets like Polymarket price the actual probability of a diplomatic meeting occurring based on trader conviction and real money at stake. Markets often incorporate geopolitical intelligence, diplomatic signals, and breaking news faster than polls, making them a forward-looking gauge of expert and informed-trader expectations on this sensitive foreign policy question.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined based on whether a qualifying diplomatic meeting between the specified parties and Iran has taken place. Resolution depends on documented evidence of an official or high-level meeting occurring before the deadline. Traders should monitor official government announcements, diplomatic calendars, and credible news sources to assess the likelihood of resolution before the end date.

Key catalysts include official statements from U.S. or Iranian government officials confirming or denying meeting plans, changes in U.S. foreign policy or sanctions posture, regional security developments affecting diplomatic appetite, and scheduled international forums where such meetings might occur. Media reports of back-channel negotiations, shifts in Iran's political leadership, or major geopolitical incidents could rapidly shift trader expectations. Traders should track diplomatic calendars, official press releases, and credible reporting on U.S.-Iran relations to anticipate price movements.