TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Darline Graham Nordone
- Kalshi
Darline Graham Nordone - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 30, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 30, 11:58 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks whether Donald Trump publicly endorses any candidate in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before August 11, 2026. An endorsement must be a clear, affirmative public statement of support that directly references the race or is clearly made in its context, delivered by Trump or through official channels.
Kalshi
An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative public statement of support for a candidate's election in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race, either directly from Donald Trump or through official channels. The endorsement must specifically reference the race or be clearly made in its context; private communications do not qualify. Qualifying endorsements include explicit statements such as "I endorse," "I support," or "I'm voting for" a candidate; public appearances at campaign events specifically to endorse; official organizational endorsements; or permission for Trump's name or image to be used in campaign materials. Statements of obvious sarcasm immediately followed by clarifications that Trump is joking do not constitute endorsements. The market resolves immediately upon confirmation of the first qualifying endorsement. If exactly one candidate receives an endorsement, that candidate's outcome resolves to Yes at $1.00 and all others resolve to No. If multiple candidates are endorsed, each endorsed candidate's outcome resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of endorsed candidates, rounded down to the nearest $0.01. If no endorsement occurs before August 11, 2026, the "No one" outcome resolves to Yes at $1.00 and all named-candidate outcomes resolve to No. Candidates who withdraw, suspend their campaign, cease to be candidates, or lose their primary or general election before a qualifying endorsement is confirmed may have their outcome resolved to No at the Exchange's discretion.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts often diverge because they operate on different timelines and incentive structures. Analysts publish periodic reports based on polling, donor networks, and political history, while this market prices Trump's endorsement decision in real time as new information emerges. Traders who bet incorrectly face direct financial loss, creating pressure for accuracy that can outpace conventional punditry. However, analyst consensus and market odds frequently align on frontrunners, especially as the endorsement decision draws closer. Comparing both sources gives you a fuller picture of the race dynamics.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book trading, where buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for each candidate outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome contract reflects the collective probability that traders assign to that candidate receiving Trump's endorsement. Contracts that trade higher indicate stronger market belief; those trading lower suggest lower perceived odds. As new political developments break or endorsement signals shift, traders adjust their positions, and prices move accordingly. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market continuously incorporates the freshest available information.
This market resolves around Aug 11, 2026, at which point the outcome will be confirmed once Trump's endorsement in the South Carolina Senate race is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on an official or widely documented endorsement statement from Trump himself, whether delivered publicly, on social media, or through official campaign channels. If no endorsement occurs by the deadline, or if the endorsement is ambiguous, the market rules will specify how that scenario is classified. Traders should monitor official announcements and major news outlets as the resolution date approaches.
Key catalysts include Trump's public statements about South Carolina candidates, campaign rallies held in the state, and endorsement timing announcements from Trump's team. Candidate momentum shifts—reflected in polling, fundraising, or primary performance—often precede Trump's own endorsement decision and can reshape market odds. Media reports about Trump's private preferences or backroom negotiations with candidates frequently trigger sharp price swings. Additionally, developments in other early primary states can influence Trump's calculus and trader expectations. Close attention to Trump's social media activity and cable news coverage of South Carolina politics will help you anticipate major moves.
