TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.6b
24H VOL:
$156,130,290
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,799,919,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,782,923,786
501,315
Markets across
37,757
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,847
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
$
This market tracks the likelihood of various individuals becoming the next White House Press Secretary under a second Trump administration before January 20, 2029. Currently, Kalshi gives Anna Kelly a 17.0% probability of being appointed to the position, while Scott Jennings is at 13.0%. The market will resolve based on whether Alina Habba formally holds the position of White House Press Secretary before January 20, 2029, as determined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the Republican National Convention in July 2028, as potential cabinet and administration appointments are often signaled during that event.
The event determines the individual who will next permanently hold the position of White House Press Secretary under Donald Trump’s administration before January 20, 2029. Each market corresponds to a specific candidate, with resolution occurring if that candidate is the first to formally assume the role in a permanent, non-temporary capacity after the market issuance. Acting, interim, or provisional holders do not qualify. If no new permanent holder emerges by the deadline, the 'No new person' market resolves positively, and all others resolve negatively. Should the first qualifying appointee not match any listed candidate, all markets resolve negatively. The holder of the position at issuance is excluded from consideration for all markets.
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts. While polls and expert opinions offer predictions about potential candidates, they often focus on broader popularity or suitability rather than the probability of actually securing the position. This market, however, reflects what participants are willing to wager, providing a unique measure of perceived likelihood. Discrepancies between this market and analyst forecasts can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentive structure inherent in prediction markets.
This market resolves around Jan 27, 2029, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the individual officially appointed and confirmed as the White House Press Secretary. Any announcement made by the former President or the White House will be considered. The market will determine which candidate fulfills this role, as verified against credible public sources, and the corresponding contracts will be settled accordingly.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from the former President regarding potential candidates, or reports of interviews and vetting processes, would likely cause price fluctuations. Major political developments, such as changes in the political landscape or unexpected resignations within the former President's circle, could also shift the odds. Furthermore, media coverage and public endorsements of potential candidates could influence trading activity and move this market.