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Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?
kalshi

Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

Volume:
$1,430,736

Jay Clayton

 - Kalshi

Jay Clayton - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 29, 2026

Closed: Jul 29, 10:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Jay Clayton

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$103,344
N/A
N/A
$54,748
2y 3mo 3w
Yes
kalshi

Bill Pulte

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$178,341
N/A
N/A
$80,734
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Aaron Lukas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$166,992
N/A
N/A
$67,741
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Elise Stefanik

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$95,292
N/A
N/A
$46,672
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Amaryllis Fox Kennedy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$80,848
N/A
N/A
$37,881
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Devin Nunes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$76,964
N/A
N/A
$42,985
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Mike Waltz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$68,003
N/A
N/A
$32,594
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Michael Ellis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$64,877
N/A
N/A
$38,298
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Sebastian Gorka

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$62,970
N/A
N/A
$21,027
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Rick Crawford

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$58,913
N/A
N/A
$41,876
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Mike Flynn

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$55,943
N/A
N/A
$33,416
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Richard Grenell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,438
N/A
N/A
$30,215
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Chris Stewart

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,211
N/A
N/A
$31,859
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Derek Harvey

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53,986
N/A
N/A
$28,832
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Kash Patel

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$53,775
N/A
N/A
$30,495
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

John Ratcliffe

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,119
N/A
N/A
$28,155
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Tom Cotton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,263
N/A
N/A
$23,900
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Scott Perry

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,705
N/A
N/A
$20,969
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Stacey Dixon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,651
N/A
N/A
$21,486
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Jason Chaffetz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,147
N/A
N/A
$18,809
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Pete Hoekstra

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,482
N/A
N/A
$16,357
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Stephen Miller

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,618
N/A
N/A
$10,094
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Cliff Sims

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,855
N/A
N/A
$13,569
2y 3mo 3w
No
kalshi

Jay Clayton

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2y 3mo 3w
No
Total markets: 24

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether Aaron Lukas will be appointed as Trump's next Director of National Intelligence before January 20, 2029. Aaron Lukas currently holds 95.0% probability as the leading outcome, while an alternative candidate holds 2.3%. Resolution will be determined by official confirmation of who assumes the Director of National Intelligence role first during this window, according to Kalshi's resolution source. Watch for any formal nomination announcement or Senate confirmation vote before the January 20, 2029 end date, as these will directly trigger market resolution.

Kalshi

The first new person appointed to the position of Director of National Intelligence resolves the market. Acting and interim office holders are excluded from consideration. Persons confirmed by the Senate or appointed via recess appointment qualify, including recess appointments later struck down as illegal. The market resolves based on the first new appointment before January 20, 2029.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets on Kalshi reflect real-money incentives and typically incorporate information faster than traditional polling. While polls measure public opinion or expert surveys at discrete moments, prediction market prices update continuously as traders respond to news, statements, and developments in the nomination process. Markets often diverge from polling when insiders or informed traders signal confidence in a candidate's likelihood. For this cabinet position, market odds may differ substantially from analyst consensus because prediction markets reward accuracy with financial gain, attracting participants with specialized knowledge of Trump's decision-making.

The market resolves on Jan 20, 2029. Resolution is determined by the official announcement and confirmation of Trump's Director of National Intelligence. The winning contract corresponds to the individual who is formally appointed and takes office in that role. Until that announcement occurs, all candidate contracts remain active and tradeable. Traders can adjust positions right up to the resolution moment as new developments and statements shape expectations about the final selection.

Key catalysts include public statements from Trump or his transition team naming or endorsing specific candidates, media reports about frontrunners, Senate confirmation hearing schedules, and vetting controversies that eliminate contenders. Statements from potential nominees accepting or declining the role will shift odds sharply. Intelligence community developments, geopolitical events, or congressional pressure may also influence Trump's choice. Market prices will react to each new signal, rewarding traders who anticipate which candidate ultimately receives the appointment.