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Who will be CNBC's number 1 US State for Business in 2026?
kalshi

Who will be CNBC's number 1 US State for Business in 2026?

Volume:
$17,903

Ohio

 - Kalshi

Ohio - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 21, 2026

Closed: Jul 21, 2:21 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ohio

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,681
N/A
N/A
$4,965
3mo 2d
Yes
kalshi

Florida

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,918
N/A
N/A
$2,904
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

North Carolina

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,846
N/A
N/A
$470
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Texas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,552
N/A
N/A
$699
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Indiana

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,086
N/A
N/A
$1,085
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Virginia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,062
N/A
N/A
$608
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Tennessee

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$510
N/A
N/A
$509
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Minnesota

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$99
N/A
N/A
$98
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Michigan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Georgia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
$7
3mo 2d
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks which US state will rank as the most business-friendly in CNBC's America's Top States for Business study for 2026. On Kalshi, Michigan to be ranked number 1 carries 35.0% probability, while the field of all other states also stands at 35.0%. The resolution will be determined by CNBC's official 2026 rankings study. Watch for the release of CNBC's America's Top States for Business study by the end of 2026, which will definitively settle the outcome.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any of the specified states achieves the #1 position in CNBC's America's Top States for Business study for 2026. Resolution is determined by CNBC's official rankings released for that year. Only one state can hold the top position, so only one outcome will resolve affirmatively.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader conviction about CNBC's 2026 state business ranking, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts and economic reports. Markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment about tax policy, workforce trends, infrastructure investment, and regulatory momentum faster than static analyst surveys. While analysts may rely on historical rankings and published indices, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from traders monitoring emerging economic signals. This dynamic pricing can reveal market expectations about which states are gaining or losing competitive advantage ahead of CNBC's official 2026 announcement.

The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026, following CNBC's official announcement of its number 1 US state for business in 2026. Resolution is determined by CNBC's published ranking methodology and final results for that year. Traders should monitor CNBC's criteria, which typically evaluate factors such as business costs, regulatory environment, workforce quality, economic growth, and innovation metrics. The outcome will be definitively established by CNBC's formal 2026 rankings release, which serves as the authoritative source for market settlement.

Major catalysts include state tax policy changes, corporate relocations or expansions, workforce development initiatives, and infrastructure investments that reshape business competitiveness. Federal policy shifts affecting energy, regulation, or incentives can significantly alter state rankings. Economic data releases showing employment, GDP growth, or business formation trends by state will influence trader expectations. CNBC methodology announcements or preview rankings could signal which states are gaining ground. Additionally, geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks affecting specific industries or regions, venture capital funding patterns, and tech sector concentration changes may shift market pricing as traders reassess each state's ranking prospects through Dec 31, 2026.