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Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
polymarket
limitless

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$1,501,762
Volume 24h:
$185,714
45%
Liquidity:
$422,884
13%
Open interest:
$92,843N/A

Steve Witkoff

 - Polymarket

Steve Witkoff - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

37%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 38¢ buys you 263 shares | Odds: 37% Total Payout: $263 | Net Profit: $163 Multiplier: 2.63x | ROI: 163% High Projected APY: 9,715% 77 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Steve Witkoff

Trade
37%
Yes 38¢No 65¢
3¢
$26,951
$19,198
4%
39%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Abbas Araghchi

Trade
36%
Yes 37¢No 65¢
2¢
$27,979
$18,741
5%
24%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Jared Kushner

Trade
36%
Yes 38¢No 66¢
4¢
$28,470
$15,406
7%
39%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani

Trade
28%
3%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
$30,005
$95,751
71%
605%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Majid Takht-Ravanchi

Trade
23%
Yes 23¢No 78¢
1¢
$17,240
$39,765
8%
10%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Nick Stewart

Trade
22%
Yes 52¢No 73¢
25¢
$985
$39,681
33%
33%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

Trade
22%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
$13,729
$128,771
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
limitless

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

Trade
N/A
N/A
3.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
21.5%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 3.5¢
polymarket

Kazem Gharibabadi

Trade
21%
Yes 23¢No 82¢
5¢
$15,257
$41,756
8%
26%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

J.D. Vance

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
$15,242
$85,819
0%
4%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
limitless

J.D. Vance

Trade
N/A
N/A
3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17.5%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi

Trade
15%
1%
Yes 16¢No 86¢
2¢
$4,059
$71,592
14%
14%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Rafael Grossi

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
$12,484
$68,627
0%
13%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Masoud Pezeshkian

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 87¢
2¢
$16,721
$78,330
4%
11%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Ishaq Dar

Trade
11%
Yes 12¢No 90¢
2¢
$13,714
$59,831
0.01%
22%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Marco Rubio

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$20,693
$49,808
11%
11%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Donald Trump

Trade
7%
Yes 7.5¢No 93.8¢
1.3¢
$30,582
$78,524
43%
46%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Ahmad Vahidi

Trade
5%
Yes 5.1¢No 95¢
0.1¢
$32,928
$37,514
46%
50%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Pete Hegseth

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 96¢
2¢
$25,255
$25,137
0%
2%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Esmail Qaani

Trade
3%
Yes 3.4¢No 97.5¢
0.9¢
$16,264
$19,735
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Palmer Luckey

Trade
3%
Yes 3.2¢No 98¢
1.2¢
$10,966
$3,068
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Elon Musk

Trade
3%
Yes 3.6¢No 98.5¢
2.1¢
$17,430
$6,104
0.67%
0.67%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Mohammed bin Salman

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3.6¢No 99.4¢
3¢
$16,383
$38,249
8%
14%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Mojtaba Khamenei

Trade
2%
Yes 2.6¢No 98.4¢
1¢
$19,034
$31,738
0%
0%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

Newt Gingrich

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.8¢
1.8¢
$10,512
$3,597
0.57%
1%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
Total markets: 25 of 32

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Abbas Araghchi attending a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability—aggregated from Polymarket and Limitless—is 37.0% that he will attend such a meeting. Steve Witkoff is currently estimated at 36.5% to attend. Resolution will be determined by official information from the individuals and governments involved, with credible reporting serving as a secondary source. Keep an eye on any announcements regarding diplomatic engagements as we approach the resolution date estimate of January 1, 2027, to see if a formal round of talks is scheduled.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Limitless markets utilize the same definition of a qualifying 'round of US-Iran peace talks' and the criteria for attendance.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Core resolution logic:

  • Attendance requires physical presence and active participation in a formal, senior-level round of peace talks.
  • A qualifying round must involve senior representatives of both the US and Iran acting in an official capacity.
  • Indirect in-person diplomacy through mediators is acceptable if both governments authorize participation.
  • Technical or preparatory meetings do not qualify unless part of a new senior-level round.
  • Brief greetings or ceremonial appearances do not qualify.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple Day Talks: Attendance at any part of a multi-day meeting qualifies.
  • Public Acknowledgement: The meeting must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media.
  • Switzerland Talks Follow-up: Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves.
Timing: Resolution will occur if a qualifying event happens on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional polling averages. Polls can be susceptible to biases related to sampling, question wording, and social desirability. Prediction markets, however, incentivize participants to express their *true* beliefs, as they have financial stakes in the outcome. While polls measure stated opinions, this market reflects revealed preferences backed by capital. This difference can lead to significant divergence, particularly in politically sensitive events where individuals may be hesitant to share their genuine views publicly.

Polymarket and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Limitless on the US-Iran peace talks market can arise from several factors. Differences in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules contribute to varying price discovery processes. Polymarket may attract a different class of trader than Limitless, leading to differing interpretations of the same information. Additionally, the volume of trading on each platform—currently $1,501,762 overall—influences price stability and responsiveness to new information. These factors create distinct market dynamics, even when tracking the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on whether a round of official peace talks between representatives of the US and Iran has demonstrably begun by that date. The outcome will be determined by examining reports from reputable news organizations, government statements, and official announcements. The focus is on the commencement of formal negotiations, not preliminary discussions or diplomatic outreach.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. A major escalation in tensions between the US and Iran, such as a military incident or a breakdown in diplomatic relations, would likely decrease the probability of peace talks. Conversely, positive developments like renewed diplomatic overtures, prisoner exchanges, or a softening of rhetoric from both sides could increase the probability. Shifts in the political landscape within either country, such as a change in leadership or a shift in public opinion, could also influence the market. Any credible reports of secret negotiations or high-level meetings would be closely watched by traders.