TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Dave Bronson
- Kalshi
Dave Bronson - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 29, 8:48 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of Shelley Hughes advancing to the general election from Alaska's top-four primary for Governor in 2026. Currently, Kalshi gives Shelley Hughes a 4.3% probability of advancing, while the second-most likely outcome has a 1.5% probability. The market resolves based on whether Shelley Hughes advances to the general election, as determined by the official results of Alaska's top-four primary. Traders should watch the candidate filing deadline of March 31, 2026, as this will establish the full field of contenders in the primary.
Kalshi
Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial primary uses a top-four advancement system. Any candidate who finishes among the top four vote-getters in the primary election advances to the general election. This market resolves to Yes for each individual candidate who achieves top-four placement, allowing multiple outcomes to resolve affirmatively. Resolution is based on official primary results from Alaska's election authorities.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign developments, and insider knowledge into their positions. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets reward accuracy over time, incentivizing participants to price in late-breaking news and ground-level shifts. For the Alaska Governor primary, market odds may lead or lag polls depending on whether traders are pricing in factors like turnout models, ranked-choice dynamics, or recent candidate momentum that surveys have not yet fully captured. Comparing the two reveals where market participants see opportunities or risks that pollsters may have missed.
The market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official results of Alaska's primary election and which candidates officially advance from the top-four primary system. The outcome is based on state-certified election data and the formal advancement criteria set by Alaska election authorities. Traders should monitor official Alaska Division of Elections announcements and candidate qualification deadlines to understand the exact mechanics of advancement in this cycle. Once results are certified and candidates are officially declared to have advanced, the market settles according to the predetermined outcome criteria.
Key catalysts include candidate campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent Alaska figures, and shifts in voter registration or early voting patterns. Fundraising reports and media coverage of candidate viability can also shift trader sentiment. Changes in Alaska's political landscape—such as party dynamics, ranked-choice voting strategy discussions, or unexpected candidate withdrawals—may reprrice odds significantly. Polling releases specific to the primary race will likely trigger trading activity. Local news coverage of campaign events, candidate gaffes, or policy positions can move markets as traders reassess advancement probabilities. Finally, any changes to primary rules or ballot access requirements could alter expectations about which candidates remain viable contenders.
