TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 21, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing discrete outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—such as whether the White House will post 140–159 times during the specified week—has a corresponding share price that fluctuates based on order flow and trader conviction. The current odds reflect the probability consensus among active participants. As traders place bets, the price adjusts in real time, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing model allows continuous discovery of the market's collective forecast regarding White House social media posting frequency.
This market resolves around Jul 21, 2026, after the conclusion of the July 14–21 period. The outcome is determined by counting the total number of posts published by official White House social media accounts during that week and verified against credible public sources. Once the final post count is confirmed, it will be matched against the outcome ranges offered in this market to determine which prediction was correct. Traders who backed the accurate range will receive their winnings, while those on incorrect outcomes will lose their stakes. The resolution process is straightforward and objective, relying on publicly available data rather than subjective interpretation.
Several factors could shift odds before Jul 21, 2026. Major political events—such as legislative votes, international crises, or significant policy announcements—often trigger increased White House communication activity. Changes in administration communication strategy or staffing could also alter posting frequency. Historical data on typical White House social media output during comparable periods provides a baseline, but unexpected developments can push activity above or below normal levels. Traders monitor recent post counts and communication trends to adjust their positions. Additionally, any public statements about planned communications or media events during that specific week could influence market expectations, as participants incorporate forward-looking signals into their forecasts.