TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$85,014,378
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,695,592
394,774
Markets across
30,069
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,615
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
South Carolina
- Kalshi
South Carolina - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 15, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 15, 2:44 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which state will hold the first Democratic primary or caucus event during the 2028 presidential election cycle. On Kalshi, North Carolina is the leading outcome at 36.0%, while an alternative state outcome stands at 33.0%. Resolution will be determined by official Democratic National Committee scheduling and primary results. Watch for the DNC's formal announcement of the 2028 primary calendar, which will establish the definitive order of state contests leading up to the general election on November 7, 2028.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the Democratic Party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place. Only primaries and caucuses officially recognized by the party as part of the presidential nominating process are considered; unofficial beauty contest primaries, straw polls, or events where the party indicates no delegates will be awarded are excluded. If multiple states are scheduled for the same earliest date, all such states' markets resolve to Yes with payouts of $1 divided by the number of states scheduled for that date, rounded down to the nearest cent, with No holders receiving the remainder. If the party has not announced an official calendar by the expiration date, determination is based on consensus of Source Agencies regarding which state the party recognizes as scheduled first.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect traders' expectations about primary scheduling, which differs fundamentally from polling data. Polls measure voter preferences or candidate support, while prediction markets price the actual sequence of state contests as determined by the Democratic National Committee and state parties. Market odds incorporate insider knowledge, procedural history, and financial incentives that traditional polls do not capture, making them a distinct forward-looking signal for primary calendar outcomes.
The market resolves on Nov 7, 2028. The outcome is determined by the official Democratic primary calendar as announced by the Democratic National Committee and confirmed by credible news sources. Resolution hinges on which state is scheduled to hold its primary or caucus contest first in the 2028 cycle. This reflects actual party decisions regarding delegate selection order, not voter preferences or polling data.
Key catalysts include official DNC announcements about primary calendar changes, state party decisions to move up or back their contests, legislative action in early-voting states, and negotiations between state parties and the national committee. Media reporting on primary scheduling disputes, candidate positioning in early states, and historical precedent shifts can also move odds. Traders monitor DNC statements, state party conventions, and electoral reform discussions as signals of calendar changes heading toward 2028.
