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Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
polymarket

Which parties will win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?

Volume:
$218,925

Rodina

 - Polymarket

Rodina - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 12:12 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Rodina

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$15,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,279
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Russian Ecological Party “The Greens”

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$105,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Yabloko

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,185
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,046
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Russian State Duma election tracks the probabilities associated with various parties winning at least one seat in the upcoming election. You can view the current odds, historical price data, and 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $682. The total volume traded on this market is $218,925. This allows traders to see how sentiment shifts as new information emerges and to understand the market’s overall activity surrounding the election’s potential outcomes.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages for the Russian State Duma election. While polls attempt to capture voter intent at a single point in time, this market aggregates the beliefs of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, as the market incorporates not only stated preferences but also expectations about turnout, strategic voting, and potential unforeseen events. It’s important to note that polls and prediction markets measure different things and can offer complementary insights into the election’s likely outcome.

This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results released by the Russian Central Election Commission following the Russian State Duma election. The market will determine which parties have secured at least one seat in the newly elected Duma. Traders should monitor official sources for the final seat counts to understand how this market will be settled.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Major political developments, such as shifts in public opinion revealed by reliable polling data, changes in campaign strategies, or unexpected endorsements, could all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any news regarding potential electoral interference or changes to election laws could cause volatility. Finally, geopolitical events or economic shocks impacting Russia could also move this market, as they might affect voter behavior and the overall political landscape.