TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Which pair advances to South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff?
polymarket

Which pair advances to South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff?

Volume:
$3,038

Toby Doeden x Larry Rhoden

 - Polymarket

Toby Doeden x Larry Rhoden - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 1, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Toby Doeden x Larry Rhoden

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$694
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Dusty Johnson x Larry Rhoden

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.3¢
N/A
$882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Toby Doeden x Dusty Johnson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$547
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Toby Doeden x Jon Hansen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$376
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Jon Hansen x Dusty Johnson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Jon Hansen x Larry Rhoden

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$242
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market on Polymarket tracks whether Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson will be the two candidates advancing to the South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary runoff. Currently trading at 73.0%, this outcome reflects bets on these candidates finishing as the top two vote-getters in the first round. The market will resolve based on official results announced by the South Dakota Republican Party following the primary election. Watch the June 2, 2026 primary results to see whether the leading pair clears the 35% threshold needed to avoid a runoff or finishes in the top two positions if a runoff is triggered.

Polymarket

Primary elections are scheduled to take place in South Dakota on June 2, 2026. If no candidate receives over 35% of the vote in the first round of the gubernatorial primary, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to the pair of candidates that advance to the runoff of the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary election. If a pairing that is not directly listed in this market advances to the runoff, if a candidate wins the nomination in the first round of the primary election, or if no 2026 South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". If a candidate qualifies for the runoff, that candidate will count for resolution regardless of whether they later withdraw or otherwise do not participate in the runoff. The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations about which Republican pair will advance to the South Dakota Governor runoff. These market-derived probabilities often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and continuous price discovery. Traders may weight recent campaign developments, fundraising momentum, or endorsements differently than pollsters do. Comparing market odds to public polls reveals whether bettors are more or less confident in a particular outcome than survey respondents suggest.

The market resolves on Jun 2, 2026, following the South Dakota Republican Primary election. Resolution depends on the official results determining which two candidates receive the most votes and advance to the runoff stage. The outcome is binary: either Dusty Johnson and Larry Rhoden do advance together, or they do not. Traders should monitor official South Dakota election authorities and certified primary results to understand how the market will settle.

Key catalysts include campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent South Dakota Republicans, and shifts in voter enthusiasm. Fundraising reports and media coverage can signal candidate viability. Polling releases, if published, may shift market expectations about which candidates are frontrunners. Candidate withdrawals or consolidations could dramatically alter the race dynamics. Local news coverage of campaign events and voter turnout indicators in early voting periods may also influence trader positioning as the primary date approaches.