TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 10:52 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks whether specific political parties will secure representation in the Berlin state legislature following the election scheduled for September 20, 2026. The outcome depends on whether each party wins at least one seat in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus, the main state parliament, under the conditions outlined in the rules.
Kalshi
The markets resolve positively if the respective party wins at least one seat in the 2026 Berlin state election for the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus. A seat is deemed 'won' when a candidate affiliated with the party is officially declared elected by the relevant electoral authority, and either the window for legal challenges has closed, all challenges have been resolved, or the elected member has taken office. Party affiliation is determined by the party under which the candidate was elected, irrespective of any later changes. The seat count is finalized when the newly elected legislature convenes, accounting for any seats that remain vacant or are contested at that time. If the election is postponed beyond one year of the original date or cancelled entirely, the market settles at the last fair market price. Only seats contested and filled in the main election are counted; partial elections and by-elections occurring after the main election are included only if seats are filled simultaneously with the main legislature. Seats won in the district assembly (Bezirksverordnetenversammlung) elections, even if held on the same day, do not count toward these markets.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Berlin state election. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies or the incorporation of unique information by market participants. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own assessment of the likely election results. This market’s pricing represents a constantly updated assessment of probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each party winning a seat, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news, polls, and any other information traders believe is relevant to the election. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The party that officially wins a seat in the Berlin state election, as declared by the relevant electoral authority, will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be based on the official count and any subsequent legal challenges or recounts that are finalized. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements regarding the election results and the final allocation of seats.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major shifts in polling data, significant endorsements of candidates, unexpected political scandals, or key policy announcements could all influence trader sentiment. Changes in the economic outlook for Berlin, or national political developments that impact local elections, could also play a role. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of a party winning a seat has the potential to cause price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring news coverage and political analysis will be crucial for understanding these potential catalysts.
