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Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
polymarket
kalshi

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Total volume:
$290,995
Volume 24h:
$2,104
328%
Liquidity:
$65,181
23%
Open interest:
$7,756
0.99%

Before 2028

 - Kalshi

Before 2028 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 7, 2028

Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

69%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 65¢ buys you 154 shares | Odds: 69% Total Payout: $154 | Net Profit: $54 Multiplier: 1.54x | ROI: 54% | APY: 43% 439 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before 2028

Trade
69%
Yes 65¢No 42¢
7¢
N/A
$385
0%
7%
$309
1y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2027

Trade
51%
Yes 46¢No 61¢
7¢
N/A
$465
0%
1%
$361
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Hodge Conjecture

Trade
36%
1%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
1¢
$11,163
$86,804
0.13%
4%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

No solution by Dec 31, 2027

Trade
35%
1%
Yes 36¢No 66¢
2¢
$19,029
$84,820
0.32%
5%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
21%
8%
Yes 21¢No 80¢
1¢
N/A
$6,166
12%
19%
$3,240
1y 2mo 2w
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
19%
Yes 22¢No 84¢
6¢
N/A
$2,457
10%
16%
$708
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
$13,987
$38,723
0.23%
3%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Yang-Mills

Trade
10%
Yes 10.5¢No 91¢
1.5¢
$10,689
$26,679
2%
34%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 100¢
6¢
N/A
$2,129
0%
0.66%
$875
1y 2mo 2w
active
polymarket

P versus NP

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98.1¢
0.2¢
$4,542
$15,236
0.25%
5%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

Riemann Hypothesis

Trade
2%
Yes 2.9¢No 99.2¢
2.1¢
$5,772
$24,049
0.16%
3%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,083
N/A
N/A
$2,263
1y 2mo 2w
No
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks whether any AI lab will solve one of the seven Millennium Prize Problems before January 7, 2028. Currently, the consensus probability—aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi—is 75.0% that an AI lab will achieve this milestone. The resolution source for this market is the Clay Mathematics Institute’s website (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Market participants should closely watch for announcements from leading AI labs regarding potential solutions, particularly as the resolution date of January 7, 2028—representing the end of the betting period—approaches.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets have varying resolution dates, while Polymarket has a single, later resolution date. Kalshi markets resolve on *any* solution by the specified date, while Polymarket focuses on the *first* solution.Hero tip: Consider the differing timelines when trading. Kalshi's earlier deadlines offer quicker potential payouts but require a solution within a shorter timeframe. Polymarket's later deadline provides more time but may have lower odds.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves if *any* eligible AI lab announces a solution to *one* of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by December 31, 2027. Tie-breaking is alphabetical order of the problem name. Focuses on the *first* solution.
  • Kalshi: Offers multiple markets, each resolving 'Yes' if *any* eligible AI lab solves *any* qualifying problem by a specific date (ranging from Oct 1, 2026, to Jan 1, 2028). Each market is independent.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

A Millennium Prize Problem is considered solved when a complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as originally formulated by the Clay Mathematics Institute is published in a reputable peer-reviewed journal, officially recognized by CMI or another academic governing body, or reported by at least two major scientific news agencies. Preprints or informal announcements do not qualify alone. The solution must be attributed to an AI lab through direct involvement or credited collaboration. Each problem can only count once, and solutions must remain unretracted throughout the evaluation period. The market resolves to Yes if any such validated AI-driven solution occurs before the respective deadline for any of the defined timeframes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the Millennium Prize Problem market dashboard tracks the collective predictions on which of the seven Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by artificial intelligence next. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $290,995, with $1,945 traded in the last 24 hours. This provides a consensus view of probabilities, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. Polymarket currently favors Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? at 35.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028? at 69.0%. This dashboard allows users to monitor shifts in sentiment and potential breakthroughs.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on subjective assessments and biases, while prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions through financial incentives. This can lead to more accurate predictions, particularly in complex scenarios like forecasting scientific breakthroughs. The current price action suggests a different assessment than many traditional technology analysts, who are less focused on the specific timing of a solution to these problems. This market’s volume of $290,995 indicates significant interest and active forecasting.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets. Trading fees, market-specific rules, and liquidity also contribute to price discrepancies. For example, Polymarket might have a larger concentration of participants with deep expertise in mathematics, while Kalshi may attract a broader audience. These differing compositions can lead to distinct probability assessments, resulting in a 33.5 percentage point difference in implied probabilities between the two venues. The total volume remains strong at $290,995.

This market resolves around Jan 7, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on whether a solution to one of the Millennium Prize Problems is officially accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute and widely recognized by the mathematical community. The outcome will be determined by assessing whether a valid proof or solution has been published and verified, not by any specific platform’s internal criteria. The current volume of $290,995 demonstrates substantial engagement with this long-term forecast.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. A major announcement from a leading AI lab claiming a breakthrough on one of the problems would likely cause a substantial price shift. Publication of a pre-print paper with a potential solution, even if not yet peer-reviewed, could also move the market. Increased media coverage of AI progress in mathematical research or a change in expert opinions regarding the feasibility of solving these problems within the timeframe could also influence trading activity. Monitoring developments in AI research and the Clay Mathematics Institute’s website will be key to understanding potential catalysts before Jan 7, 2028.