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Which G7 leader will leave next?
kalshi

Which G7 leader will leave next?

Volume:
$115,544

Keir Starmer

 - Kalshi

Keir Starmer - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 20, 10:22 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Keir Starmer

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$37,229
N/A
N/A
$14,869
18y 3mo 1w
Yes
kalshi

Friedrich Merz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,973
N/A
N/A
$14,603
18y 3mo 1w
No
kalshi

Emmanuel Macron

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,751
N/A
N/A
$10,633
18y 3mo 1w
No
kalshi

Donald Trump

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,948
N/A
N/A
$7,705
18y 3mo 1w
No
kalshi

Sanae Takaichi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,389
N/A
N/A
$7,940
18y 3mo 1w
No
kalshi

Giorgia Meloni

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,729
N/A
N/A
$5,523
18y 3mo 1w
No
kalshi

Mark Carney

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,525
N/A
N/A
$3,229
18y 3mo 1w
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks which Group of Seven leader will be the first to depart from office. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will exit first—stands at 80.0%, while the President of France reaching that milestone is priced at 12.0%. Resolution will be determined by official confirmation of which G7 leader leaves their position earliest, as tracked through their respective government sources. Watch for any unexpected political developments or electoral announcements through the estimated resolution window in early 2045.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which G7 leader is the first to actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is insufficient; the leader must physically depart the position. The person who held the position at market issuance must be the one who leaves, not a successor. Leaders can leave through resignation, removal, term limits, electoral defeat, coup, impeachment and removal, or other constitutional processes. If a leader dies in office, all markets settle at last traded prices before the death. The first leader to leave triggers resolution for all markets in the set—that leader resolves to Yes, all others resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Which G7 leader will leave next event on Kalshi. It displays the current probability for each outcome, including the leading scenario that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be the first to leave office. You can monitor 24-hour volume of $4,420 and total event volume of $115,544 to gauge market interest and liquidity. The dashboard updates continuously as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting shifting expectations about which G7 leader's departure will occur first.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because they reflect financial incentives and real-money stakes. While polls measure public opinion at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. For the Which G7 leader will leave next event, market participants weigh leadership stability, political scandals, electoral cycles, and resignation rumors differently than survey respondents. This makes prediction markets particularly useful for capturing informed expectations about political transitions that may not yet be reflected in standard polling data.

The Which G7 leader will leave next market resolves on Jan 1, 2045. Resolution is determined by which G7 leader—from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, or the United States—leaves office first before that date. This includes prime ministers, presidents, and equivalent heads of government. The outcome is established based on official announcements and widely reported news sources confirming the departure. Once a leader leaves office, the corresponding outcome is marked as correct and settles at full value, while all other outcomes expire worthless.

Several catalysts could shift odds significantly. Major political scandals, corruption allegations, or health crises involving any G7 leader could increase their departure probability. Upcoming elections in G7 nations—particularly in the United Kingdom, France, or the United States—may trigger leadership transitions. Resignation announcements, confidence votes, or coalition collapses would immediately reprrice the market. Economic crises, military conflicts, or domestic unrest could destabilize governments and accelerate leadership changes. Conversely, strong polling or successful policy initiatives might reduce departure expectations. Traders monitor news, political commentary, and insider reports continuously to adjust positions ahead of resolution on Jan 1, 2045.