Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?

Prediction market odds and traditional polling measure different things. Polls typically ask respondents about their expectations or preferences, while this market aggregates real-money bets from traders who face direct financial consequences for accuracy. Markets often incorporate breaking news, diplomatic signals, and expert analysis faster than polls can be conducted and published. However, both sources offer value: polls reflect public opinion snapshots, whereas market prices embed forward-looking expectations from participants with skin in the game. Comparing the two can reveal whether mainstream sentiment aligns with trader conviction on which countries will ultimately sign.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares, with each contract representing a specific country's likelihood of signing the agreement. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome contract—expressed as a percentage between 0 and 100—reflects the collective judgment of all market participants. When new information surfaces, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down in real time. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to news, and wider spreads between bid and ask prices can indicate uncertainty or lower participation in a particular outcome.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed based on verified public reporting of which countries have formally signed the US-Iran agreement. The resolution hinges on credible documentation of signatories as of the deadline. Once the event is verifiable from authoritative sources, the market settles and traders receive payouts proportional to their correct positions. Until that date, prices remain fluid and responsive to diplomatic developments, negotiations, and official announcements from participating governments.

Major catalysts include official statements from government officials confirming or denying participation, breakthrough moments in bilateral or multilateral negotiations, and public announcements of signed agreements. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions developments, and shifts in domestic political leadership can also reshape trader expectations. Media reports of closed-door talks, leaked diplomatic cables, or expert commentary on the likelihood of agreement may trigger price swings. Economic indicators, regional stability concerns, and statements from allied nations can influence perceived feasibility. Each new development gives traders fresh information to reassess probabilities, causing this market to reflect evolving consensus on which countries will ultimately become signatories.