TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which company will own the second-ranked coding AI model according to the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's coding category rankings. On Polymarket, Anthropic holds 98.0% probability of holding the second-best position, while Google holds 0.9% probability. Resolution will be determined by the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard coding rankings checked on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, with ties broken by arena score and then alphabetical order of company names. Watch the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard updates through May 31, 2026 to track which model maintains the second-highest rank in the coding category.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders actively betting on which company will rank second in coding AI capability by May 2026. Analyst forecasts typically rely on published benchmarks, model release timelines, and expert opinion, which may lag behind market pricing as new information emerges. The market's continuous price discovery mechanism often incorporates emerging technical developments and competitive announcements faster than traditional analyst reports, making it a complementary signal to static forecasts.
Major coding AI model releases, benchmark results, and performance announcements from leading AI labs will be primary catalysts. New model versions, published research papers, and competitive leaderboard updates can shift market expectations about which company will rank second. Acquisition activity, talent moves, and funding announcements may also influence perceived capability trajectories. Technical breakthroughs in specific coding domains, regulatory developments affecting AI deployment, and third-party evaluations published closer to May 2026 will likely drive significant repricing as traders update their probability estimates.