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Science and Technology
Which company has the second-best Coding AI model end of June?
polymarket

Which company has the second-best Coding AI model end of June?

Volume:
$42,634

Anthropic

 - Polymarket

Anthropic - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Anthropic

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Z.ai

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,099
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,148
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Microsoft

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,206
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,261
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meituan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$972
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Alibaba

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$866
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$846
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mistral

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$828
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Moonshot

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$813
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Baidu

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$802
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Amazon

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ByteDance

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$716
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company G

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company H

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company C

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company J

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company B

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company E

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company F

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company A

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Company D

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29

Intro

This market tracks which company will own the second-ranked coding AI model according to the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. On Polymarket, Anthropic holds the leading probability at 79.5%, with Mistral at 12.0%. The market will resolve based on the "Coding" leaderboard rankings at https://lmarena.ai/ checked on June 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, using the Arena score and rank as the primary determinant. Watch the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on June 30, 2026, when the final coding model rankings will be recorded to determine the resolution outcome.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by identifying which company holds the second-best ranking in coding AI model performance. Resolution hinges on evaluating publicly available benchmarks, leaderboards, and performance metrics for coding-specific AI models at that date. The determination will reflect the consensus view of coding AI capability rankings at the end of June 2026, considering factors like code generation accuracy, problem-solving ability, and industry recognition. Traders should monitor major AI benchmark releases and model announcements leading up to resolution.

Major catalysts include new model releases or significant updates from leading AI companies, public benchmark results (such as HumanEval, LeetCode, or proprietary coding evaluations), and announcements of improved training methods or architectural breakthroughs. Competitive positioning shifts when companies publish performance comparisons or when third-party evaluators release updated leaderboards. Acquisition news, partnership announcements, or talent moves within AI labs can also shift market expectations about which company will rank second. Media coverage of coding AI capabilities and developer adoption trends will influence trader sentiment as the June 2026 resolution date approaches.