TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which company will own the second-ranked coding AI model according to the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. On Polymarket, Anthropic holds the leading probability at 79.5%, with Mistral at 12.0%. The market will resolve based on the "Coding" leaderboard rankings at https://lmarena.ai/ checked on June 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, using the Arena score and rank as the primary determinant. Watch the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on June 30, 2026, when the final coding model rankings will be recorded to determine the resolution outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Major catalysts include new model releases or significant updates from leading AI companies, public benchmark results (such as HumanEval, LeetCode, or proprietary coding evaluations), and announcements of improved training methods or architectural breakthroughs. Competitive positioning shifts when companies publish performance comparisons or when third-party evaluators release updated leaderboards. Acquisition news, partnership announcements, or talent moves within AI labs can also shift market expectations about which company will rank second. Media coverage of coding AI capabilities and developer adoption trends will influence trader sentiment as the June 2026 resolution date approaches.