TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.9b
24H VOL:
$93,512,876
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,170,643,411
338,472
Markets across
33,488
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,292
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Anthropic
- Polymarket
Anthropic - Polymarket
78%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 24
Aug 26
Aug 27
Vol.
$3.9k
·
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
$
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Currently, this market reflects a different perspective than many analyst forecasts. While some experts highlight specific strengths in certain companies, the odds here are shaped by trader sentiment and recent performance signals. This can create notable gaps — for example, a firm might appear stronger in this market than in traditional rankings, or vice versa, depending on recent developments and betting patterns.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders actively set the price through their bets, which determines the implied probability for each possible leader. The current top outcome sits around 77.5%, with the market price adjusting continuously based on new information, trading volume of $11,093, and shifts in sentiment around individual companies' AI Agent offerings.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner will be the company recognized as having the best AI Agent by that date, based on widely accepted benchmarks and announcements, ensuring an objective and transparent closing process.
Several signals could shift this market before it closes — major product releases, partnerships, performance benchmarks, or high-profile reviews all have the potential to sway trader sentiment. Any sudden change in a company's AI Agent capabilities or market perception may cause rapid price adjustments, especially as we approach the final weeks leading up to Oct 31, 2026.