TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which company will own the third-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard with style control enabled. On Polymarket, Anthropic is priced at 98.7% to hold the number three position, while DeepSeek is at 0.7%. The market resolves based on the Chatbot Arena's official leaderboard rankings checked on May 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, using the Text Arena Overall rankings with style control on as the authoritative source. Watch the Chatbot Arena leaderboard updates leading into the May 31, 2026 resolution date to track shifts in model performance rankings.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction and typically incorporate analyst research, industry reports, and public statements from AI labs. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, prediction markets create continuous price discovery as new information emerges. Traders betting on this event weigh factors such as model performance benchmarks, release timelines, and competitive positioning. Market odds often diverge from static analyst predictions because they update dynamically, allowing participants to adjust their views as the May 2026 resolution date approaches.
The market resolves on May 31, 2026. Resolution depends on identifying which company's AI model ranks third globally at that moment, based on established benchmarks and performance metrics for large language models and multimodal systems. The determination of the number three position will be assessed using publicly available model rankings and performance data available at the resolution date. Traders should monitor AI model leaderboards, benchmark releases, and official company announcements in the months leading up to resolution.
Major model releases or significant performance improvements from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta, or other AI developers could shift the ranking. Benchmark results on standardized tests, real-world capability demonstrations, and published research papers all influence trader expectations. Announcements about new model versions, architectural breakthroughs, or competitive positioning statements from company leadership may trigger price movements. Additionally, industry consolidation, partnership announcements, or shifts in model evaluation methodologies could alter perceptions of which company will hold the third-ranked position by end of May 2026.