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$1,782,923,786

501,315

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Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
polymarket

Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)

Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$83,145
Volume 24h:
$2,125
325%
Liquidity:
$63,011
21%
Open interest:
$7,224N/A

Google

 - Polymarket

Google - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 07d:21h:54m

Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?

83%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 85.2¢ buys you 117 shares | Odds: 83% Total Payout: $117 | Net Profit: $17 Multiplier: 1.17x | ROI: 17% APY not meaningful 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Google

Trade
83%
4%
Yes 85.2¢No 19.8¢
5¢
$2,684
$13,242
1%
7%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
12%
3%
Yes 14.1¢No 90.6¢
4.7¢
$6,550
$37,406
0.94%
7%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Meta

Trade
4%
Yes 5.5¢No 98¢
3.5¢
$4,372
$5,916
18%
32%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 4.1¢No 99.8¢
3.9¢
$2,909
$5,995
4%
5%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$1,897
$2,999
20%
22%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$2,305
$2,466
0%
1%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$2,560
$2,348
0%
1%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,434
$1,922
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,469
$1,710
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,433
$1,654
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Nvidia

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$3,102
$773
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

StepFun

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,937
$735
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

MiniMax

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,952
$726
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

ByteDance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,960
$699
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Thinky

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,895
$692
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Tencent

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,888
$683
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Microsoft

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,950
$681
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Meituan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$3,014
$671
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,884
$667
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Mistral

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,917
$625
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Amazon

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,897
$537
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks the latest odds and price movements for the #1 AI model market, along with 24-hour volume of $2,125. It shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning themselves ahead of the Nov 1, 2026 deadline, offering a real-time view of market sentiment and liquidity for this specific competition.

Currently, this market reflects trader conviction through its odds, which can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may weigh factors like technical benchmarks, user adoption, and funding rounds differently than retail traders do. Watching both this market and expert commentary offers a broader perspective on where the AI industry might be headed.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through their bets, which aggregate into an implied probability for each possible outcome. The current top outcome has a chance of 82.7%, and the market’s volume stands at $83,145. Prices adjust continuously as news, product launches, or performance data influence trader sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The winner will be the company widely recognized as having the top AI model by that date, based on authoritative industry reports and benchmarks.

Several signals could shift this market before Nov 1, 2026. Major product releases, benchmark test results, or high-profile industry endorsements may sway trader sentiment. Media coverage highlighting a specific company’s advancements could also create volatility. Additionally, unexpected regulatory decisions or partnership announcements involving leading contenders might dramatically alter the odds as the market approaches its closing date.