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Which companies will be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
kalshi

Which companies will be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Volume:
$27,837

Norwegian Cruise Line

 - Kalshi

Norwegian Cruise Line - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Norwegian Cruise Line

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,945
N/A
N/A
$2,912
Settled
No
kalshi

LyondellBasell Industries

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,931
N/A
N/A
$2,319
Settled
No
kalshi

The Trade Desk

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,011
N/A
N/A
$2,476
Settled
No
kalshi

Charter Communications

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,480
N/A
N/A
$2,136
Settled
No
kalshi

Intel

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,963
N/A
N/A
$1,379
Settled
No
kalshi

Hasbro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,881
N/A
N/A
$2,259
Settled
No
kalshi

Dollar Tree

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,833
N/A
N/A
$1,375
Settled
No
kalshi

Solventum Corporation

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,674
N/A
N/A
$1,348
Settled
No
kalshi

Deckers Outdoor Corporation

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,120
N/A
N/A
$723
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks whether specific publicly-traded companies will be removed from the S&P 500 index during the second quarter of 2026. On Kalshi, Norwegian Cruise Line has a 19.0% probability of removal, while Hasbro stands at 12.0%. The market resolves based on official S&P Dow Jones Indices announcements of removals occurring between April 1 and June 30, 2026. Watch for any merger, acquisition, or bankruptcy announcements involving the tracked companies through the end of Q2 2026.

Kalshi

Resolution occurs when either the index administrator officially announces a membership change or the change takes effect during April 1 to June 30, 2026, whichever occurs first. The effective date need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within it. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange determines resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for market purposes. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, after the S&P Dow Jones Indices announcement window for Q2 2026 closes. Resolution is determined by official S&P 500 index reconstitution announcements and any confirmed removals during that quarter. Traders should monitor index committee communications, corporate delisting risks, and merger activity that could trigger removal. The outcome is binary for each company: either it is removed from the index during Q2 2026 or it is not.

Key catalysts include earnings misses or guidance cuts that weaken a company's index eligibility, merger or acquisition announcements, bankruptcy filings or credit downgrades, and shifts in market capitalization relative to index thresholds. Regulatory actions, delisting notices from exchanges, and changes in trading volume or liquidity can also trigger removal discussions. Additionally, S&P Dow Jones Indices communications about reconstitution criteria, sector rebalancing needs, and competitor performance relative to index members will influence trader expectations and move odds throughout Q2 2026.