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Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
kalshi

Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?

Volume:
$164,711

SoFi

 - Kalshi

SoFi - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

SoFi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40,188
N/A
N/A
$19,179
Settled
No
kalshi

SpaceX

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$33,531
N/A
N/A
$15,289
Settled
No
kalshi

Reddit

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,153
N/A
N/A
$9,843
Settled
No
kalshi

Pure Storage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,509
N/A
N/A
$5,547
Settled
No
kalshi

Strategy (MicroStrategy)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,757
N/A
N/A
$10,023
Settled
No
kalshi

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,927
N/A
N/A
$5,204
Settled
No
kalshi

Affirm Holdings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,353
N/A
N/A
$5,895
Settled
No
kalshi

CoreWeave

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,640
N/A
N/A
$4,150
Settled
No
kalshi

Toast

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,654
N/A
N/A
$980
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks whether specific publicly-traded companies will join the S&P 500 index during the April–June 2026 period. On Kalshi, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals has a 21.0% probability of addition, while Reddit carries a 14.0% probability. The market resolves based on official S&P Dow Jones Indices announcements of index inclusions during Q2 2026, with final resolution by July 1, 2026. Watch for S&P index reconstitution announcements throughout April, May, and June 2026, as these typically occur on specific trading days following market close.

Kalshi

A company's addition to the S&P 500 resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change or the change takes effect during April 1 through June 30, 2026, whichever occurs first. The effective date need not fall within the specified period; only the announcement or implementation must occur during this timeframe. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity on Kalshi for which companies will join the S&P 500 during the second quarter of 2026. It displays current probabilities for individual candidate stocks, 24-hour trading volume of $0, and cumulative group volume of $164,711. The interface shows price history and market depth, allowing traders to monitor how sentiment shifts as corporate earnings reports, index inclusion criteria discussions, and market capitalization changes unfold through Q2 2026.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on historical S&P Dow Jones Indices selection patterns and qualitative assessments. Markets price in live information about company fundamentals, market cap thresholds, and liquidity requirements more dynamically than static analyst reports. While analysts may emphasize regulatory or accounting factors, prediction markets aggregate distributed knowledge from active traders who face direct financial consequences for accuracy, often producing complementary but distinct probability estimates for Q2 2026 additions.

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, after the S&P 500 index composition window for Q2 2026 closes. Outcome determination depends on official announcements from S&P Dow Jones Indices regarding which companies are added to the index during that quarter. Each contract outcome is binary: either a specific company is confirmed as added to the S&P 500 in Q2 2026, or it is not. Resolution follows the index operator's public statements and filings.

Key catalysts include quarterly earnings reports that affect market capitalization and trading volume eligibility, analyst rating changes, and corporate governance announcements. Regulatory filings, debt issuances, or strategic partnerships can shift S&P Dow Jones Indices selection criteria assessments. Broader market volatility and sector rotation also influence candidate valuations. Media coverage of index inclusion speculation, management commentary on public market readiness, and changes to competitor eligibility all drive trader sentiment and contract prices through Q2 2026.