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Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
kalshi
polymarket

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Volume:
$1,864,715

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 11:33 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$897,632
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$275,144
N/A
N/A
$221,774
2mo 1w 2d
Yes
polymarket

Flavio Bolsonaro

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$269,404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Flavio Bolsonaro

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$67,424
N/A
N/A
$29,971
2mo 1w 2d
Yes
polymarket

Tarcisio de Frietas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$98,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Renan Santos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,683
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Renan Santos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,203
N/A
N/A
$4,413
2mo 1w 2d
No
polymarket

Fernando Haddad

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,032
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Michelle Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Michelle Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,620
N/A
N/A
$1,092
2mo 1w 2d
No
polymarket

Romeu Zema

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Romeu Zema

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63
N/A
N/A
$63
2mo 1w 2d
No
polymarket

Jair Bolsonaro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,897
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ronaldo Caiado

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,376
N/A
N/A
$1,405
2mo 1w 2d
No
polymarket

Ronaldo Caiado

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualifying for the runoff stage of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, or winning outright in the first round. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket gives him a 100.0% chance of advancing. This market will resolve based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). Keep an eye on the first round of voting, scheduled for October 4, 2026, to see which candidates secure their place in the runoff.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves on announcement, while Polymarket prioritizes official results, creating a potential delay or discrepancy if initial announcements are contested.Hero tip: Consider that Kalshi markets may move quickly based on early reports, while Polymarket will likely lag until official confirmation. A discrepancy between initial announcements and official results could create arbitrage opportunities.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on consensus of credible reporting, with a fallback to official results from the TSE. Allows for a period to confirm results and address ambiguities.
  • Kalshi: Resolves solely on the announcement of a candidate qualifying for the runoff. Faster resolution, but susceptible to initial reporting errors or disputes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Kalshi

Each candidate's market resolves based on whether they are announced to qualify for the runoff in Brazil's 2026 presidential election. Qualification is determined when either the official Brazilian election authority certifies it, or when the Associated Press or at least two other major news agencies report the qualification—whichever occurs first. Official certification is not required; media reports suffice for resolution. Qualification status is fixed at the moment of announcement; any subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not alter the resolution. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, their market immediately resolves to No. In the event that a candidate wins the first round outright with a majority (or whatever threshold Brazil requires to avoid a runoff), that winning candidate's market resolves to Yes and all other candidates' markets resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those outcomes. This can lead to differences, as market prices incorporate not just who is currently favored, but also the perceived uncertainty and potential for shifts in support. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes surpassing the predictive power of polls, particularly in capturing late-breaking developments and nuanced probabilities surrounding the Brazilian presidential runoff.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading limits, and fee structure, all of which can influence price discovery. Furthermore, information flow and interpretation can vary between the two venues. For example, one platform might react more quickly to a specific news event or polling data release than the other. These differences in market dynamics can lead to temporary discrepancies in the perceived probabilities of candidates advancing to the Brazilian presidential runoff, even though they are tracking the same underlying event.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the Brazilian political landscape, such as significant endorsements, unexpected scandals, or shifts in economic conditions, could all influence trader sentiment. Polling data releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in candidate support, would also likely cause price movements. Furthermore, any statements from key political figures or changes in campaign strategy could affect the perceived probabilities of candidates advancing to the Brazilian presidential runoff, leading to adjustments in the odds on both Polymarket and Kalshi.