TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Netanyahu bloc
- Kalshi
Netanyahu bloc - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 29, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Oct 29, 10:34 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the outcome of Israel's 2026 legislative election, focusing on which political alliance secures the highest number of seats in the Knesset. The contest involves two defined blocs, each comprising several parties that pool their seats. The result depends purely on the election's final seat distribution, with no consideration for subsequent coalition formations or seat transfers.
Kalshi
The event determines which of two political blocs—the Opposition bloc or the Netanyahu bloc—wins the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Each bloc’s total is calculated by summing seats won by its listed parties, including any joint lists explicitly named for the bloc. Seats won by parties not listed in either bloc are excluded, and post-election coalitions or surplus-vote agreements do not affect the totals. A seat is considered won when officially declared elected by the electoral authority, with all challenge periods expired or resolved, and the member has taken office. Party affiliation is determined by the party under which a candidate was elected, irrespective of later changes. If the two blocs finish with equal seat counts, both markets resolve at $0.50 each. In the event of a tie for the top position between the two blocs, tied parties at that rank resolve to Yes with values split proportionally. If a ranking is skipped due to ties (for example, two parties tie for first place, making the next rank third), markets for the skipped rank resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the Israeli election outcome. While polls and expert opinions offer valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to express their beliefs about the likelihood of each bloc securing the most Knesset seats. It’s common to see discrepancies between prediction markets and initial polling data, as markets can incorporate information and adjust rapidly to new developments that polls may not immediately capture. These differences can highlight areas where the market anticipates shifts in voter sentiment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the election’s likely result. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current prices are driven by supply and demand, and traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the final seat distribution in the Knesset. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a constantly updated assessment of the political landscape.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official results of the Israeli legislative election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The bloc with the highest number of seats in the Knesset, as determined by the Central Elections Committee, will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on the official seat count following the election, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final result.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Major political events, such as shifts in party alliances, unexpected candidate endorsements, or significant policy announcements, could all cause the odds to fluctuate. Changes in public opinion polls, particularly those indicating a substantial swing in voter preference, would also likely move the market. Additionally, any unforeseen geopolitical events or security concerns could influence voter behavior and, consequently, the trading activity in this market. Monitoring these developments is crucial for understanding potential shifts in the perceived likelihood of each outcome.
