TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 10:33 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether any specific political alliance secures a governing majority in Israel's 2026 parliamentary elections. The outcome depends purely on seat counts for named party blocs, ignoring later coalition arrangements. Results consider only officially declared seats after all election-related challenges conclude.
Kalshi
A bloc wins if it secures at least 61 seats in the 2026 Knesset election. Seat counts include all seats won by parties explicitly listed under each bloc, including joint lists, but exclude seats from unaffiliated parties, surplus-vote agreements, or post-election coalitions. A seat counts as 'won' once a candidate affiliated with the relevant party is officially declared elected, all legal challenges have either expired or been resolved, and the member has taken their seat. If neither bloc reaches 61 seats, the 'None' outcome applies. The final count occurs when the new legislature convenes, accounting only for seats filled in the main election or simultaneous by-elections. If the election is postponed beyond one year or cancelled, the market settles at the last fair market price. Party affiliation is fixed at the time of election and cannot change retroactively.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the Israeli coalition. While polls and expert opinions provide valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential scenarios. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and those offered by analysts often highlight differing assumptions about voter behavior, coalition dynamics, and the influence of unforeseen events. Examining these differences can be a useful exercise in evaluating the robustness of various predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome—the different blocs that could win a Knesset majority. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and strategic trading activity, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the political landscape.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the composition of the governing coalition in the Knesset is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve to the bloc that controls a majority of seats (at least 61) in the Knesset following the formation of a new government. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Knesset and widely recognized news sources, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning bloc.
Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in public opinion polls, particularly those indicating a substantial change in support for different parties, would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected political alliances or breakdowns in negotiations between potential coalition partners could also trigger significant movement. Furthermore, unforeseen events such as major security incidents or economic shocks could alter the political landscape and influence traders’ expectations. Any developments affecting the standing of key political figures or parties will be closely watched and reflected in the market.
