TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks the location of the next in-person diplomatic meeting between US and Iranian government representatives authorized to negotiate on behalf of their governments. On Polymarket, Switzerland is the leading outcome at 92.3%, while no qualifying meeting occurring by the resolution deadline stands at 3.8%. Resolution will be determined by official statements from both governments and credible media consensus. Watch for any public announcements of scheduled diplomatic talks as the June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET resolution deadline approaches, which marks the end of the betting period for this market.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect trader expectations rather than public opinion polls. While traditional polls measure general sentiment about US-Iran relations, prediction markets aggregate financial incentives and specialized knowledge from participants betting real money on specific venues. Markets often move faster than polls in response to diplomatic signals, sanctions announcements, or intermediary country statements. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in scenarios that broader public awareness has not yet reflected, offering insight into informed expectations versus general perception.
The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution depends on official confirmation of the next bilateral or multilateral diplomatic meeting between US and Iranian representatives. The outcome is determined by the location where such a meeting occurs, whether it is a formal negotiation, back-channel talks, or multilateral forum. If no meeting takes place by the deadline, or if the location cannot be definitively established, the market may resolve to a default outcome. Traders should monitor official government statements and credible news sources for confirmation of meeting announcements and venues.
Key catalysts include sanctions policy shifts, statements from intermediary nations like Oman or Pakistan, UN General Assembly sessions, or direct diplomatic communications. Regional escalation or de-escalation could accelerate or delay talks. Announcements from the US State Department or Iranian Foreign Ministry naming a venue or date would immediately reprrice all outcomes. Involvement of European mediators, Gulf states, or international organizations may signal preference for specific neutral locations. Election cycles, leadership transitions, or nuclear negotiations progress could also influence where and when the next meeting occurs, driving significant odds movements before Jun 30, 2026.