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When will Trump release more UFO files?
kalshi

When will Trump release more UFO files?

Volume:
$48,380

Before Oct 2, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Oct 2, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 18, 2026

Closed: Sep 18, 10:10 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Oct 2, 2026

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,304
N/A
N/A
$11,374
3mo 4d
Yes
kalshi

Before Sep 25, 2026

View
100%
72%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,043
N/A
N/A
$3,489
3mo 4d
Yes
kalshi

Before Sep 18, 2026

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,542
N/A
N/A
$4,831
3mo 4d
No
kalshi

Before Sep 11, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,510
N/A
N/A
$2,247
3mo 4d
No
kalshi

Before Sep 4, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,025
N/A
N/A
$1,978
3mo 4d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 21, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,273
N/A
N/A
$1,163
3mo 4d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 28, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,682
N/A
N/A
$1,218
3mo 4d
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks whether the U.S. federal government will disclose new materials related to Unidentified Aerial Phenomena within a specific timeframe. Such releases could include documents, audio, or video that were previously classified or undisclosed. The focus is on any official government action to make these materials public.

Kalshi

The event resolves to Yes if, after the market issuance and before any of the specified deadlines from August 21, 2026 through October 2, 2026, the U.S. federal government releases any previously undisclosed documents, audio files, or video files concerning Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP). Each rule provides a sequential deadline, and resolution occurs upon the first occurrence of such a release before its respective deadline. The outcome depends solely on the timing and nature of the government’s disclosure, with no requirement for specific content or format beyond being previously unreleased UAP-related material.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Trump UFO files release market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the Trump UFO files release market, along with 24-hour volume of $12,681. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of additional UFO-related documents being made public by Trump, updated continuously throughout trading hours.

Unlike traditional polling averages that gather public opinion through surveys, this market reflects trader sentiment and betting activity on Kalshi. While polls may indicate general public expectations, this market incorporates real-money stakes and can react more quickly to breaking news, policy announcements, or insider speculation about the release timeline and scope.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate wisdom of market participants. The odds adjust dynamically based on trading volume of $48,380, news flow, and any official statements from relevant government agencies that could influence the likelihood of further disclosures.

This market resolves around Jan 2, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will look for official government releases, documented declassifications, or authoritative announcements that clearly indicate whether additional UFO files have been made public during the relevant period.

Key signals that could shift this market include official statements from the White House or relevant government departments, leaks from intelligence community insiders, major news investigations, congressional hearings on UFO-related topics, or any sudden policy changes regarding transparency and information release. Each of these could dramatically alter trader expectations and shift odds on Kalshi before resolution.