TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
kalshi

When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?

Volume:
$15,557

Before Oct 1, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 3:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
100%
56%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,525
N/A
N/A
$4,013
3mo 1w 3d
Yes
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,797
N/A
N/A
$1,577
3mo 1w 3d
Yes
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

View
100%
52%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,034
N/A
N/A
$2,179
3mo 1w 3d
Yes
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,021
N/A
N/A
$928
3mo 1w 3d
Yes
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,180
N/A
N/A
$1,175
3mo 1w 3d
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks whether the United States and China will formally agree on new tariff terms within specified timeframes. Such an agreement requires mutual confirmation by both governments and must specifically address tariff rates or suspensions, excluding unilateral actions or broader trade discussions.

Kalshi

The event resolves to Yes if the United States and China publicly announce or confirm a new mutual tariff agreement after the market issuance and before any of the specified deadlines ranging from September 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027. A qualifying agreement must involve an extension, modification, or replacement of the existing tariff truce and directly address tariff rates or suspensions. Unilateral tariff changes, negotiations in progress, or agreements limited to other trade matters do not satisfy the criteria. Once both governments confirm the agreement, it qualifies regardless of its effective date. Only reports from designated source agencies count, with republishing requiring clear identification of the original publisher on the outlet’s official platform.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the US-China tariff deal market dashboard tracks the current odds and price history for when a tariff agreement will be reached between the two nations. It also displays 24-hour volume of $7,402 and total volume of $15,557, letting you see how trader sentiment and market activity evolve over time.

Analyst forecasts on the US-China tariff deal often differ from this market's pricing. Experts may cite political timelines or trade policy shifts, while traders on Kalshi incorporate real-time sentiment and betting patterns. The gap between these views can widen when new negotiations emerge, making this market a live barometer of changing expectations.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact date of an official, publicly announced tariff agreement between the US and China will settle the market, based on authoritative news sources and government communications.

Key signals that could shift this market include high-level diplomatic meetings, statements from trade representatives, changes in trade policy rhetoric, economic data releases from either country, and any unilateral tariff announcements. Each of these can dramatically alter trader expectations and move the implied probability of an agreement in the near term.