TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Before Oct 1, 2026
- Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2026 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 10, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 10, 6:04 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the timing of the next UK parliamentary by-election, focusing on when a formal request for an election is made by the appropriate official. The outcome depends on whether this request occurs within specific future timeframes.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on whether a writ for a UK parliamentary by-election is issued by the relevant Clerk of the Crown within any of the specified timeframes: after the issuance date and before October 1, 2026, November 1, 2026, December 1, 2026, January 1, 2027, or April 1, 2027. If the writ is issued in any of these windows, the market resolves positively. The rules collectively create a series of sequential deadlines, with the earliest applicable deadline determining the resolution. The outcome hinges solely on the issuance date of the writ relative to these fixed cutoff points.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than many analyst forecasts. While analysts may emphasize political polling trends, traders on Kalshi are pricing in additional variables such as recent campaign performance and local issues. This divergence provides a complementary view of expectations for the timing of the next UK parliamentary by-election.
This market resolves around Apr 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact date will be determined by official parliamentary announcements, and the market will close once that information is publicly confirmed and irreversible.
Key signals that could shift this market include major political developments, such as leadership changes, significant polling updates, or unexpected announcements from governing parties. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of when a by-election will be called can cause rapid price adjustments on Kalshi as traders react to new information.
