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407,365

Markets across

40,470

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4,365

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

VS.

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63%

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When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
predict
polymarket

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

Volume:
$336,237

No release by November 1

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 2:02 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No release by November 1

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$178,205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

No release by November 1

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,485
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 12–October 18

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

October 12–October 18

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 28–October 4

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,041
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

September 28–October 4

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 5–October 11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,727
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

October 5–October 11

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 19–October 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

October 19–October 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 26–November 1

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,230
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

October 26–November 1

View
0%
96%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 21–September 27

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,080
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 7–September 13

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,704
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Prior to August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

September 14–September 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$754
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 31–September 6

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Intro

This market tracks the timing of the next release of Google’s Gemini Pro large language model, specifically whether a new ‘Pro’ version will be released by November 1, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability is 90.3% that there will be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by that date. This prediction aggregates data from Predict and Polymarket, and will be resolved based on official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting. With a resolution date estimate of November 1, 2026, keep an eye on Google’s annual I/O developer conference in May 2026 for potential announcements regarding their Gemini roadmap.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict define the resolution criteria identically, focusing on a publicly accessible 'Pro' labeled Gemini model.Primary resolution logic: Official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is triggered by the calendar date (ET) of the public release of a Gemini model labeled as 'Pro'.
  • A 'Pro' model release includes GA promotions of existing 'Pro' preview models.
  • Public accessibility requires open beta access or an open rolling waitlist; closed betas do not qualify.
  • Labeling must be accurate and correspond to an actually accessible model.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • GA Promotion: A 'GA' (Generally Available) release of a previously previewed 'Pro' model will qualify as a new release.
  • Labeling Errors: If a model is incorrectly labeled as 'Pro' on Google's website but is not actually accessible, it will not qualify.
  • Non-Pro Variants: Releases labeled as 'Flash', 'Flash-Lite', or other non-'Pro' variants will not qualify.
Timing: Resolution will occur on the calendar date (ET) when the qualifying model is made available to the general public, as determined by Google's official announcement or verifiable public access.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or incentives, while this market incentivizes participants to express their genuine beliefs about the timing of the next Google Gemini Pro release. The aggregated wisdom of the crowd can sometimes outperform individual expert predictions, especially in complex scenarios with many contributing factors. Currently, the market suggests a different outlook than some recent tech industry reports, indicating a potentially later release date than initially anticipated by some observers. This market provides a real-time, financially-motivated forecast.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict on the Google Gemini Pro release market can arise due to several factors. Differences in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules can all contribute to varying price assessments. Polymarket may attract a different class of traders with unique information or risk tolerance compared to Predict. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform—currently $336,237 overall—influences price discovery. Even small differences in trading activity can lead to noticeable price divergences, reflecting differing expectations about the release timeline of the next Gemini Pro model.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official statements from Google executives regarding their AI development roadmap would be a major catalyst. Leaks of information about the Gemini Pro’s features or release timeline could also cause substantial price movement. Unexpected advancements or setbacks in the field of large language models, or competitor announcements, could influence trader sentiment. Finally, broader economic conditions or shifts in the tech industry landscape might indirectly affect expectations surrounding the release of the next Google Gemini Pro model, shifting volume and price in this market.