TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
↓ $75
- Polymarket
↓ $75 - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Latest in Commodities
Closed: Jun 30, 11:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether WTI Crude Oil will reach specific price thresholds during June 2026. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability that WTI hits a high of $100 in June 2026 stands at 10.0%, with a 10.0% probability assigned to WTI reaching a high of $120. Resolution will be determined using Pyth Data price feeds. Watch for settlement price action on the ICE and CME exchanges through the end of June 2026, as these will serve as the final reference points for determining whether price targets are met.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Temporal scope mismatch (Kalshi: through May 29 and specific June dates; Polymarket: entire June month) combined with data source fragmentation (ICE settle vs. Pyth intraday vs. CME fallback) creates materially different resolution conditions.Hero tip: Do not assume arbitrage between platforms. Kalshi's May 29 cutoff means most June price action is irrelevant to Kalshi resolution. Polymarket's 1-minute candle requirement means brief spikes count; Kalshi requires settlement-level persistence. On June 8-11, Kalshi uses July contract settlements while Polymarket uses active-month intraday data—these can diverge significantly. Favor Polymarket for capturing true June volatility; use Kalshi only if you believe prices will move decisively before May 29 or settle at exact thresholds on June 8-11.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Resolves on three distinct mechanisms: (1) ICE front-month minimum through May 29, 2026 (thresholds: $90.01, $86.01, $80.01, $75.01, $70.01); (2) July 2026 contract settlement on June 8, 2026 (thresholds: $85.99–$99.99); (3) July 2026 contract settlement on June 11, 2026 (thresholds: $80.99–$94.99). Uses official settlement prices exclusively. Key Quote: 'ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below [threshold]' and 'the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil (July 2026 contract) on June 08, 2026 is above [threshold] USD/Bbl.'
- Polymarket: Resolves YES if any 1-minute candle during June 2026 trading sessions reaches specified high or low thresholds. Uses Pyth as primary source (1-minute candles) with CME daily high/low as fallback if Pyth unavailable. Covers 28 distinct price levels (lows: $20, $30, $40, $50, $60, $65, $70, $75, $80, $85, $90; highs: $90, $100, $105, $110, $115, $120, $125, $130, $140, $150, $175, $200). Key Quote: 'any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final High or Low price equal to or beyond the listed price' and 'Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of June 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe’s business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Kalshi
Resolution uses the daily settlement price for WTI crude oil (July 2026 contract) on June 11, 2026, measured in USD per barrel. The settlement is based on the nearest listed contract month, rolling forward to the next contract two business days before the current contract's last trading day. Contract months are named after their delivery month rather than expiration date. Settlement values are rounded to the nearest two decimal places. If no data is published by the specified source agency on the specified date, the most recently available published data will be used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
OPEC production decisions, US inventory reports, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are primary drivers of WTI volatility through June 2026. Recession signals, dollar strength, and renewable energy adoption trends also influence crude demand. Supply disruptions, sanctions changes, or major refinery outages can spike prices toward $130. Conversely, demand weakness or strategic petroleum reserve releases could cap upside. Energy transition announcements and global growth forecasts shape longer-term sentiment. Traders monitor weekly EIA data, Fed policy shifts, and international conflict developments as key catalysts that could push WTI toward or away from the price levels embedded in Polymarket and Kalshi odds.
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